ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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RL3AO
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#1621 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:31 pm

There was nothing going on in Minnesota so the Chanhassen office mentioned it in their discussion this morning.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH GFS 500MB WINDS
REVEALED A FASCINATING EXAMPLE OF LARGE SCALE LAMINAR FLOW BREAKING
DOWN INTO TURBULENT UPPER LEVEL WAVES. ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NO BEARING
ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IT IS AT LEAST WORTH
MENTIONING. THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WHERE
JUST 36 HOURS AGO AN ELONGATED STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY PREVAILED
BETWEEN THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MOIST AIR TIED TO THE OUTFLOW OF
CRISTOBAL...AND THE EQUATORWARD TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. BY THIS MORNING THIS STRIP OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY HAD CONGEALED INTO THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION THAT WILL MARCH OFF HARMLESSLY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
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#1622 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:29 pm

It looks like it is strengthening but looks can be deceptive...
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Re:

#1623 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:45 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:Cristobal is a better looking storm than Bertha


That's very high praise. :lol:

Image

CrazyC83 wrote:It looks like it is strengthening but looks can be deceptive...
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1624 Postby windnrain » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:43 am

Uh... is Cristobal going to hit Iceland as a tropical storm?

Image
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#1625 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:48 am

It will be post-tropical long before then but still intense...pressures may drop into the 950s or 960s...
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#1626 Postby windnrain » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:49 am

They JUST changed it on me right as they had a "S" above Iceland. Nonetheless, it has Christobal at 70mph right before "merged with an etratropical low. This sounds to me like Iceland is about to get walloped either way.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1627 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:21 pm

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#1628 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:20 pm

Image

looking really good!
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1629 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:46 pm

TXNT27 KNES 281822
TCSNTL

A. 04L (CRISTOBAL)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 37.5N

D. 63.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...POSSIBLE CLOUD-FILLED EYE BUT BECAUSE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
USED EMBEDDED PATTERN WITH CENTER IN LG FOR A DT=4.5 WHICH IS THE SAME
DT HAD THE EYE PATTERN BEEN USED. MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1258Z 36.4N 66.8W TMI
28/1436Z 36.7N 65.9W TMI


...MCCARTHY
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1630 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:51 pm

Given the very similar appearance and speed of Irene in 1999 as it passed by North Carolina (and as we've seen with the inaccuracy of satellite classification) it's likely that this will never be classified as strong as it actually is, my personal opinion would be at or close to Cat 2 right now. (And interestingly the track is very similar except shifted several hundred miles due east.)
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#1631 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:01 pm

Image

earlier today
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#1632 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:53 pm

I agree it is likely stronger than it appears...and only a poor ship can confirm it. My guess is 85 kt (pressure 961mb).
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1633 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:08 pm

Up to 75kt

AL, 04, 2014082900, , BEST, 0, 382N, 598W, 75, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 50, 20, 20, 1005, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTOBAL, D,
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#1634 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:09 pm

Its peak intensity in pressure will probably be the last advisory before becoming extratropical, as it should continue to deepen further. It may be 950mb or so by the time it reaches Iceland.
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#1635 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:55 pm

Advisory intensity up to 75 kt. Dvorak does poorly in high latitudes and storms with forward momentum so I would argue for a higher intensity personally.
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#1636 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:58 pm

Also Cristobal at 970 passes Arthur at 973 for most intense storm of 2014 so far.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1637 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:34 pm

The NASA Global Hawk just started dropping sondes.

972mb surface sonde just recorded, 61 knots (70 mph) of wind at 971mb level.

You can follow the mission here (sondes):
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

Actual track data here:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

"Overview: AV-6 arrived WFF this morning following transit/Hurricane Cristobal collection (83 sondes dropped). Plan is to fly AV-6 again Thur evening targeting Hurricane Cristobal (70 sondes planned). Troubleshooting continues on AV-1."

From: https://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/daily-schedule
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#1638 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:51 pm

With that kind of wind, the pressure would likely be 965mb right now.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1639 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:52 pm

Another sonde...

968mb, 25 knots at the surface

Through first 9 sondes. It's moving so fast, and due to northern latitude, satellite imagery does not line up perfectly.

Image
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#1640 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:38 am

Maybe a little lower still, perhaps 963 or so, based on that data.
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