ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

Until we get a true llc these models will be bad

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: I would still be looking at this with one eye and not quite dismissing it if I lived in Florida. A lot of factors still at play...ie(how much this may deepen tonight will determine which way it goes, trough, ridge etc.) I do have to say though the trend seems to be an east shift...but you still can't dismiss the euro ensembles showing a cluster in gulf and Florida.

models showing weakness more

[bahamaswx]

Until we get a true llc these models will be bad

We do have a true LLC. That's why it was upgraded to TD4.

[jinftl]

agree a possible hurricane spending most of next week with a few hundred miles of the coast at most - she is not covering a lot of real estate in 5 days can not from any model on the graphic bears watching esp when the interplay of a trough moving out and riding building in is the culprit for the snail's pass

Make sure Cristobal doesn't pull a Jeanne.

:uarrow: I would still be looking at this with one eye and not quite dismissing it if I lived in Florida. A lot of factors still at play...ie(how much this may deepen tonight will determine which way it goes, trough, ridge etc.) I do have to say though the trend seems to be an east shift...but you still can't dismiss the euro ensembles showing a cluster in gulf and Florida.

[tolakram]

Based on the model trends today and the NHC's forecast, I think there will be some track adjustments, but not enough to make it a threat to US land. The "wishcasting index" on this system here has been the highest I've seen it in 2-3 years.

I don't think that was called for. Now lets stick to the topic of model runs please. GFS starts up at 11:22, see you there.

[bamajammer4eva]

http://i.imgur.com/uhYKzcG.png

These seemed to follow the 18z GFS which also trended east so it's not surprising since these models are based on 18z GFS's data.

[sunnyday]

Florida has been lucky for 9 years or so, so why expect anything else?

[TheStormExpert]

Florida has been lucky for 9 years or so, so why expect anything else?

We must still have our hurricane shield on!

[stormlover2013]

This thing is ragged it will relocate shouldn't have been designated and a lot of pros have said that

[MaineWeatherNut]

This thing is ragged it will relocate shouldn't have been designated and a lot of pros have said that

Look... Recon Doesn't lie. I don't care what Pro-mets say... Recon Closed off a well defined Low Level Center this afternoon thus the Upgrade. Doesn't matter what it looks like as long as the Low Level Circulation is present with enough organized Convection around it which the NHC felt it had.

[WPBWeather]

Any idea why the model tracks on the site below (SFWMD) which many use show slightly different tracks for same storm?


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


The reason I ask is that for TD 4, some models are bending southeast now, while on the 96 chart they are not. Same time stamps for both.

This site is one many govts and others use.

[Evil Jeremy]

Florida has been lucky for 9 years or so, so why expect anything else?

Because the tropics have no memory, and having that mindset will come back to bite you one day.

[meriland23]

Florida has been lucky for 9 years or so, so why expect anything else?

Murphy's Law...anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

[bahamaswx]

This thing is ragged it will relocate shouldn't have been designated and a lot of pros have said that

Relocate to where? Convection is bursting on top of the LLC right now.

[tolakram]

BACK ON TOPIC PLEASE

Take any discussion not model related to the discussion thread, this back and forth can go on forever. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles are east of Florida. They finally agree with the ECMWF which had this track (slightly more to the east) many days ago and hasn't budged much from it. Assuming the rest of this TD's future turns out the way the ECMWF as projected which I think it quite likely will, we can see why the ECMWF still continues to prove it is a more superior model than the GFS as far as forecasting steering of these cyclones as they interact with mid-latitude systems.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hectopascal]

[tolakram]

[img ]http://i62.tinypic.com/1z52nx0.jpg[/img]

hectopascal, what is this image of?

[hectopascal]

[img ]http://i62.tinypic.com/1z52nx0.jpg[/img]

hectopascal, what is this image of?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0
AL 04

[Alyono]

NHC shifted slightly east in their latest forecast