EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

If you want a good analog for this



This might be it. Similar time of year. Peaked 125 knts officially, but arguably was stronger.

Kiko along with Olivia are the two most grossly underestimated hurricanes of the 80s IMO. I strongly believe they were both solid Cat.5 but overlooked by EPHC

[Yellow Evan]

If you want a good analog for this



This might be it. Similar time of year. Peaked 125 knts officially, but arguably was stronger.

Kiko along with Olivia are the two most grossly underestimated hurricanes of the 80s IMO. I strongly believe they were both solid Cat.5 but overlooked by EPHC

Don't wanna get too offtopic, but I agree. The intensity estimates of those storm (along with a few others) have long interested me.

Granted, Dvorak constraints were followed more so back then.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS

[cycloneye]

That shows GFS lost vortex thing was a bad run.

[Cyclenall]

18z GFS

That's cool, I wonder why the simulated IR always shows a much larger hurricane than what really becomes the size of the mature storm. The appearance might be similar but looks scaled larger as if the IR layer is zoomed in and the other not. Also, is that future Christobal on the far right (south of Florida) on that image?

Looks like the Epac wants to rip another one out for us.

[Yellow Evan]

Also, is that future Christobal on the far right (south of Florida) on that image?

I think so.

[cycloneye]

A large low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is moving west-northwestward at about 10
mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
organization during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

A little surprised the 5 day TWO risk has not bee raised

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2014082100, , BEST, 0, 95N, 946W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0z SHIPS initialization also seems off given the fact that it shows the GFS losing 92E's vorticity maximum.

...that's very obviously not the case.

[supercane4867]

TCFA issued

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued

http://i.imgur.com/AdrPaAt.gif

Here is the text.

WTPN21 PHNC 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 94.0W TO 13.3N 100.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 94.6W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 94.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING YET BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202240Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
MORE DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220200Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have not become any better organized during the past
few hours. However, environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has this to 953 mbar and has it interacting with 94C of all systems



CMC has this strong and being absorbed by Lowell and Karina

[supercane4867]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 45 60 73 90 99 105 112 120 121
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 45 60 73 90 99 105 112 120 121
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 61 72 81 87 91 94
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 7 5 6 6 7 10 8 8 8 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 0
SHEAR DIR 23 27 46 56 71 77 34 21 336 313 332 358 22
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 157 161 165 164 163 163 163 166 165 160
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 84 83 81 81 79 80 81 80 81 80
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 10 11 12 15 16 22 27 32 36 43 46
850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 41 36 28 24 17 23 43 60 84 96 110
200 MB DIV 119 82 83 78 84 92 118 121 152 148 128 120 67
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 578 562 490 439 392 416 453 447 433 418 426 518 506
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 10 7 7 8 9 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 14 34 53 67 68 62 34 18 21 14

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF aggressive with this as well. Here we go.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 54 67 81 91 96 104 109 108
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 54 67 81 91 96 104 109 108
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 46 53 58 62 66 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 14 18 16 13 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 16 38 33 38 40 66 31 37 360 356 3 8 23
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 161 163 163 162 158 160 163 163 159 149
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -51.5 -52.2 -50.8 -50.8 -49.8 -49.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7
700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 84 83 84 83 81 78 81 79 80 80
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 18 20 25 31 35 40 45 47
850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 26 15 9 13 23 35 47 76 92 94 103
200 MB DIV 90 80 95 79 69 148 130 152 128 122 83 80 23
700-850 TADV 0 2 2 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 0 -4 0 -8
LAND (KM) 600 546 501 494 509 547 576 581 551 568 656 604 619
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 15 14 12 10 9 7 7 10 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 5 6 12 28 39 55 55 62 42 22 33 13 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 15. 23. 31. 36. 44. 49. 50.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 29. 42. 56. 66. 71. 79. 84. 83.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

GFS brings this to 951 mbar.



FIM brings this semi-close to Baja



UKMET a little weaker and sows a WNW course