EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Friday
or Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[supercane4867]

It's taking time to consolidate

[Yellow Evan]

Needs more convection and banding on its SW side before I think it's a TD.

[supercane4867]

Fresh ASCAT found 30kt winds but LLC still elongated

[cycloneye]

90%-90%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have continued to become better organized over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and any additional increase in organization would
result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on
Friday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. In
addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that gale-force winds
are occurring well to the northeast of the low near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, which are not part of the circulation at this time.
Information on this gale area is contained in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS brings this to 951mbar.



HWRF has this 110-120 knts on the surface.

[supercane4867]

HWRF is trying to develop a huge eye which may hinder stronger intensity. Marie will be nowhere near Cat.5 threshold if that verifies

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 92, 2014082118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 973W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 40, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2014082200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 984W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Retained at 30 knts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 92E should be designated overnight if convective trends continue.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 08/22/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 54 71 87 100 108 112 118 118 115
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 54 71 87 100 108 112 118 118 115
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 67 76 82 87 92 95 92
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 10 13 15 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 52 39 49 64 73 40 39 14 8 37 48 40 46
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.9 28.0 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 165 166 166 163 160 163 163 161 154 144 133
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.4 -51.9 -50.7 -50.9 -49.7 -49.8 -48.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5
700-500 MB RH 86 84 85 84 85 83 80 79 79 78 74 70 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 22 26 31 35 39 44 46 48
850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 30 30 39 35 53 65 94 105 115 153 178
200 MB DIV 98 79 72 93 136 129 124 107 116 82 108 72 76
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 3 1 -5 1 -4 -6
LAND (KM) 423 416 430 441 454 470 506 529 597 572 592 643 679
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 1 11 26 22 22 17 11 5 1 46 43 28 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 27. 32. 37. 45. 46. 46.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 24. 41. 57. 70. 78. 82. 88. 88. 85.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/22/14 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

Invest 92E should be designated overnight if convective trends continue.

I see no real reason not to declare tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

EP, 92, 2014082200, , BEST, 0, 122N, 984W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 40, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[supercane4867]

Quite amazing

[Yellow Evan]

May it already be entering RI.

[cycloneye]

Intensity peaks at 95kts but I am sure that will be adjusted upwards later on.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with
scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low
pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past
several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near
the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a
tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is
supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT
overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has
been expanding.

The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix
positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly
clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving
west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout the forecast period. This is due to a
strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and
northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the
consensus model TVCE.

The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic
and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The
official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as
aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category
4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the
intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in
48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 12.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Why does it say advisory 2 on the header?

[Yellow Evan]

With a forecast peak of 95 knts, highest first forecast peak of any EPAC TC since Dora 11.

[supercane4867]

You know when NHC calls for a major hurricane in the first advisory then it must be a Cat.5

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... .001.shtml

[cycloneye]

Why does it say advisory 2 on the header?

They fixed it.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1

[cycloneye]

For sure it will be a very interesting one to track.