EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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#681 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:03 pm

I agree, if Recon flew in they might have found sub-900. There has never been a storm officially recorded with a sub-900 pressure in the EPAC or CPAC (Linda might have easily been though?).

ADT is T7.1 from CIMSS, although I haven't seen any other data. Given the satellite imagery and trends, I would go with 145 kt.
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#682 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:10 pm

Seems like previously they had the track turning more westward out to sea. Now it seems like they have it going much more northerly.
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#683 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I agree, if Recon flew in they might have found sub-900. There has never been a storm officially recorded with a sub-900 pressure in the EPAC or CPAC (Linda might have easily been though?).

ADT is T7.1 from CIMSS, although I haven't seen any other data. Given the satellite imagery and trends, I would go with 145 kt.


SAB comes out in a bit.
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#684 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:24 pm

24/2330 UTC 16.3N 112.3W T6.5/7.0 MARIE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#685 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:26 pm

ERC on the way

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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#686 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:27 pm

00z Best Track down to 135kts.

EP, 13, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1124W, 135, 922, HU
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#687 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:27 pm

EP, 13, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1124W, 135, 922, HU, 34, NEQ, 270, 240, 150, 150, 1009, 380, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1124W, 135, 922, HU, 50, NEQ, 100, 90, 70, 90, 1009, 380, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1124W, 135, 922, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1009, 380, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
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#688 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:28 pm

Beautiful! That eye is impressive albeit weakening and I think Marie was slightly underestimated in terms of intensity. Now as this is the 6th strongest in the EPac on record, it is historic already.
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#689 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:02 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2014 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 16:20:06 N Lon : 112:23:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 914.4mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +7.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 202km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.2 degrees
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#690 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:42 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2014 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 16:23:51 N Lon : 112:33:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 914.4mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 202km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#691 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:40 pm


HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the
hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern
semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become
cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled
some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an
eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at
around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is
lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak
intensity estimates from 0000 UTC.

The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of
intensity in the short term for which there is little to no
predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major
hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over
relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment.
Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie
will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier
and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid
spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant
low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current
reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than
the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the
SHIPS model output.

After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier
today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of
290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track
forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west-
northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming a
remnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to
turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast
is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result
of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.6N 112.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#692 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:45 pm

It was a Category 5 for 6 hours. Those six hours were a tight squeeze for a Category 5 to exist!
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#693 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:47 pm

It's all downhill form here. These kinds of storms weaken rapidly.
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Re:

#694 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:It's all downhill form here. These kinds of storms weaken rapidly.


I think in this case the weakening might be more gradual, given that the water is still warm for a day and shear is low. As Marie has behaved like a typhoon since inception, I'd wager that its degradation will be like a typhoon's as well -- it becomes a giant with multiple wind maxima and slowly, painfully winds down. If we're REALLY lucky maybe we can try to get an annular storm out of this but that's a lower probability scenario at this time given Marie's size.
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#695 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 11:03 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:If we're REALLY lucky maybe we can try to get an annular storm out of this but that's a lower probability scenario at this time given Marie's size.


That's crossed my mind. Annular hurricanes tend to be large. However, they don't undergo go ERC's very often and when they do, they are short-lived.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#696 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 11:09 pm

WOW!

Am i seeing this correctly? a category 5 outside of the West Pacific?

3rd ever Cat 5 in the NHEM!

Congrats Marie... :D
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#697 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 11:16 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2014 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:56 N Lon : 112:55:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 914.4mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -0.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 202km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.0 degrees
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#698 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:34 am

Still very powerful, but it is weakening fairly quickly.

13E MARIE 140825 0600 17.0N 113.4W EPAC 125 932
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#699 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:02 am

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent
microwave images. The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter
circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from
the center. In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the
inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the
circulation. The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend
of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair
of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of
Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi
away from the center.

Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall
replacement cycle. As mentioned in previous discussions, these
internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how
many occur. Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major
hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an
air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees
Celsius water. After that time, however, Marie will be moving over
much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere. These
conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening. The
NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the
day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward
track now. The initial motion estimate is 300/10. A continued
northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by
ridging to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the north-northwest
is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening
system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge. No
significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the
current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus,
TVCE.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#700 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:59 am

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