EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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#741 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:52 am

EP, 13, 2014082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1231W, 65, 980, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 160, 120, 160, 1008, 350, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1231W, 65, 980, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 80, 60, 80, 1008, 350, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082712, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1231W, 65, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 350, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#742 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:16 am

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow. The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period. The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast. These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#743 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:48 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#744 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with
convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the
circulation. The center has also become partially exposed.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to
decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt. This is
also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to
50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is
expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface
temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable
environment during the next couple of days. Marie should become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around
the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula. After Marie becomes a shallow system, it
should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level
northeasterly flow. The new NHC track is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern
California. These swells are expected to persist for another day or
so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#745 Postby HurricaneRyan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:22 pm

At least Marie went Cat 5
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There-ever

#746 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:54 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
euro6208 wrote:3rd ever Cat 5 in the NHEM!

Congrats Marie... :D

Ever? Me = confused.


Third of 2014 after Halong and Genevieve. :)

Remove the Ever, then there-ever (after) I wouldn't be confused :lol: .

Yellow Evan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote: As Super Typhoon Forest and Hurricane Wilma have shown, there is no limit. I still don't know, but there might be a physical limit but chances are its vastly higher than any intensification rate tropical cyclones will go through in the span of how long they have been forming on Earth.


Why do we have Dvorak constrains then and why does the NHC (somewhat) follow them?

Exactly, I don't know why constraints are in place, especially rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. It still wouldn't be right to just go by whatever Raw T# is in place at the time because that can change quick but maybe an average in a pre-determined time-span or human intervention between hurricane experts (the specialists) if its fluctuates bigtime.

Yellow Evan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote: I was just thinking something similar that if Marie had screwed up just one or two more times, she wouldn't have gotten to 140 knots. Another poster (I think mrbaygo) said if she wants to become CAT5, she needed to do it right now and it did, that was the only slot of time to do so IMO.


That argument goes both ways. Had conditions been more favorable for 6 more hours for Amanda and Cristina, they would have been Cat 5's. That's why SST anomalies (even though they don't fluctuate much in the EPAC) and timing are so crucial.

I agree. But more pressure was on this season as Amanda and Cristina were close but didn't cut it, and to add a CAT5 under its belt is a big thing for how a season stacks up in history.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#747 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.
However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and
the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still
showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the
initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher
side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures
between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to
continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and
the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,
with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn
northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then
slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level
flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north
than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,
but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#748 Postby Iune » Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:54 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Image

Is that Karina just south of Marie?
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#749 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:58 pm

Getting more attention than I'd expect due to the waves in CA.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#750 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:35 am

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Hurricane

#751 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:42 am

Phoenix's Song wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Image

Is that Karina just south of Marie?


Yup. I've been fascinating by that little storm that won't quit. It looks like it's really getting wrapped up in Marie's circulation now though. Until it's gone though *there's still a chance* it Karina will outlast all of them. :D

The remnant of Lowell is still spinning at the northwest edge of that frame too.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#752 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:42 am

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and
east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been
warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above
the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should
dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and
Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large
circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone
remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the
coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the
initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#753 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:49 am

Still a nice storm. After all, who can forget the first Category 5 he ever tracked, as well as the sixth strongest hurricane in the EPAC? I will never forget Marie.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#754 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of
the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given
that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection
does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical
tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible
satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a
circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the
next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant
low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward
motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of
southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the
end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for
the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#755 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:54 pm

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

#756 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:32 am

Bye Marie. You gave us a show of beauty.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation
of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in
agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The
large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the
eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC
prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should
slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a
mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering
currents. The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest
of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move
west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Marie. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#757 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:27 am

And there goes on of the strongest EPAC hurricanes of all time.

Oh well, that was fun.
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#758 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:13 am

Indeed, a storm which won't slip from my memory for years to come.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

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galaxy401
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#759 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:55 am

Marie was quite an interesting storm but I can't help but feel disappointed that it could of strengthen a little more. It was a category 5 for only an advisory and that was it and I still think Rick and Celia were more interesting to track. But I digress, another cat 5 to add to the records.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#760 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:25 pm

Another thing. Marie lived up to the hype.
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