ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Pretty brief TWD on 97L at 8:00 p.m. Not much expected to happen until a couple of days from now possibly, which has been discussed earlier.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N52W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
45W-59W.

[alienstorm]

Don't expect much more than a rain maker, this is a classic example of the trade winds being force north by Cristobal and the High Pressure to its east. Once Cristobal leaves the area then conditions may improve.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52/53W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This
system is now expected to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

I moved this thread from activestorms/invests forum to here as 97L is not active at this time. But as the 8 AM TWO says about development in Western Caribbean or Southern GOM, they may reactivate it in the coming days it will return to the invests forum.

[Yellow Evan]

I moved this thread from activestorms/invests forum to here as 97L is not active at this time. But as the 8 AM TWO says about development in Western Caribbean or Southern GOM, they may reactivate it in the coming days it will return to the invests forum.

Which leads me to an idea. Why don't we move threads for areas of disturbed weather when they become invests rather than locking them?

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NHC thinks 97L is what the Bay Of Campeche cyclone may stem from:

[cycloneye]

Here is a video by Levi Cowan about the tropics but explains a lot about what would occur with the wave/Ex 97L.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... xt-7-days/

[Dave C]

Good discussion, I learned something new today about the tropics. Good stuff!!!

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters blog about ex 97L.

EX INVEST 97L' STILL WORTH WATCHING’

While yesterday’s Global model runs had forecast what was 97L to develop into a significant cyclone, the last few runs have completely backed away on this. However, most of the global models now forecast this elongated wave near the eastern CARIB to move across the CARIB towards the Yucatan over the weekend, with some models showing a small cyclone formation in the southern GOM next week.

There has been a dramatic increase in moisture both with the westbound wave and with a moisture plume from the deep (Equatorial) tropics in South America (SOAMER) that has been surging northward ahead of the wave for over 24 hours. Though wind shear is over 30Kts over much of the eastern CARIB (and will remain relatively high for the next few days) there is a somewhat anti-cyclonic flow developing between a small upper air Low/TROF in the west central CARIB and the approaching T.W. in the far eastern CARIB. This anti-cyclonic curvature of the high level wind field may develop further and move westward as the tropical wave traverses the CARIB over the next few days – and shear speeds may drop off during the weekend. Clearly a system worth monitoring over the coming days.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
This system is forecast to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Alyono]

real development chances may be quite a bit higher than 10 percent

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Martinica as 97L should bring showers and tstorms.
(french version) http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... inique.pdf

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N57W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 17N WHICH
ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-16N WEST OF 52W.

[Gustywind]

A vigorous squall line is moving fast and furious in my location. Thunder is rumbling very very nicely, a big lighthing has bright my window. A brief but strong gustywind is blowing now.

[abajan]

Dead calm and overcast here but no rain. We had a bit of rain and some distant thunder earlier.

[tropicwatch]

Vorticity is increasing in that area.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with
little development during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions could become favorable for some development by early next
week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N63W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-17N EAST OF 68W.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next
couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become
conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.