ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

Buoy 42055 at 22.2N and 94W...winds have switched to ENE and still turning. If I didn't know any better, I would say the center was heading toward it. That would be much farther N than expected...

[tropicwatch]

Wind shear has come down considerably.

[Hammy]

High-res rapidscan NASA imagery shows the center appearing to become better defined slightly to the northwest of the lastest convection.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is slightly more north and east of 7 PM CDT NHC advisory position:

AL, 05, 2014090200, , BEST, 0, 206N, 935W, 25, 1007, TD

[tropicwatch]

If the wind shear stays down this might turn out to be one of the more decent looking systems we have seen this year.

[ozonepete]

There is a bit of NNW shear...it also seems to be moving a bit more northerly than model depictions. Convection is displaced to the SE and will be until a tower pops over the center

Like clockwork here comes the tower and we may get off to the races until landfall...

Yeah kaboom almost right over where we think the center is. And shear does look to be dropping now.

[Sanibel]

Seems the center is NE of where they are placing it on SSD Floater.

[ozonepete]

If that convective blowup continues to thrive and expand I'm pretty sure RECON will find TS winds in there. And they may have to extend TS warnings a little northward. This is just what I'm thinking right now based on what we've been seeing, not a forecast.

[drezee]

Buoy 42055 now has NE winds and gusting to 30mph. Pressure down to 1007.8 last hour

[lrak]

Buoy 42055 now has NE winds and gusting to 30mph. Pressure down to 1007.8 last hour

So that would suggest the center to be closer to 22.2 latitude?

[ozonepete]

Buoy 42055 now has NE winds and gusting to 30mph. Pressure down to 1007.8 last hour

So that would suggest the center to be closer to 22.2 latitude?

Well minimally the center should be southeast or east-southeast of there. Just more evidence the center is northeast of where they have it located.

[TheStormExpert]

If the wind shear stays down this might turn out to be one of the more decent looking systems we have seen this year.

http://tropicwatch.info/GANIMmkYcAE10.jpg

Arthur was pretty darn good looking for a Cat.2 hurricane in early July, Cristobal looked somewhat ok on it's final days, and Bertha... WAS A JOKE!

[lrak]

Buoy 42055 now has NE winds and gusting to 30mph. Pressure down to 1007.8 last hour

So that would suggest the center to be closer to 22.2 latitude?

Well minimally the center should be southeast or east-southeast of there. Just more evidence the center is northeast of where they have it located.

Oh, ok I see what you mean. Thanks.

[lrak]

I don't wish for anything bad to happen but it sure would be nice to get a good swell out of this for S. TX. It's WAY over due! Any thoughts for a swell time if any for S. TX?

[TheProfessor]

I realize that the ridge is supposed to push TD 5 west and and maybe a bit south of due west as it nears the coast but is there a chance with this setting up just about as far north as any of the models were predicting that the nose of the ridge building west noses in a bit south of TD 5. Just a question I was wondering about as a slight possiblity.

Doesn't look likely judging from the steering charts

If this storm moves further north than they thought, Could the ridge catch it and pull it even further North West?

[Rail Dawg]

You guys have been doing a good job with this one.

Keep it up!

Chuck

[ozonepete]

I don't wish for anything bad to happen but it sure would be nice to get a good swell out of this for S. TX. It's WAY over due! Any thoughts for a swell time if any for S. TX?

Would think Tuesday would be your day.

[NDG]

Fairly strong narrow mid level ridging across the gulf coast this evening from the 0z sounding, in fact the narrow ridging extends from the Atlantic near Bermuda all the way to the eastern Pacific, TD 9 cannot gain that much latitude overall, the trough across the northern Plains is just going to keep up moving ENE and not dig southward to weaken the ridge.

[ozonepete]

I realize that the ridge is supposed to push TD 5 west and and maybe a bit south of due west as it nears the coast but is there a chance with this setting up just about as far north as any of the models were predicting that the nose of the ridge building west noses in a bit south of TD 5. Just a question I was wondering about as a slight possiblity.

Doesn't look likely judging from the steering charts
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm1.GIF

If this storm moves further north than they thought, Could the ridge catch it and pull it even further North West?

Yes. The stronger it gets the more northward it will go as it would get steered more by the western side of that ridge. But I still don't see that happening yet. We will have to wait for the NHC to relocate the center and issue a new track. And we definitely to wait for the next RECON to get a good handle on what's happening. So outside of a probable center relocation I don't think the NHC will say much in their next discussion at 11PM EDT. They will wait for RECON which is smart. There's still enough time before landfall.

[lrak]

I don't wish for anything bad to happen but it sure would be nice to get a good swell out of this for S. TX. It's WAY over due! Any thoughts for a swell time if any for S. TX?

Would think Tuesday would be your day.

Oh, I'm already feeling sick...cough....sneeze around 4:30pm Monday

Thanks ozonepete!