ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[gatorcane]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for development during the
next few days, but could become more conducive by the end of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[wxman57]

Looks like an average tropical wave - something we haven't seen to many of this season.

[Alyono]

chances of development are probably a little less than the climatological wave that comes off of the coast this time of year

[HURRICANELONNY]

If 97L found some moisture. It encompasses about 5 latitudes.

[adam0983]

We are getting closer to the peak of Hurricane season which is Sept 10. Does anyone see anything that can send Invest 97L out to sea? It is going to be 1 fun week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, located just north of the southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for
significant development during the next couple of days, but could
become more conducive by the end of the week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

Please, can someone could put a pic of 97L to have a better idea of this feature

Thanks

[cycloneye]

Please, can someone could put a pic of 97L to have a better idea of this feature

Thanks

Hi Gusty. Here you go.

[Gustywind]

Please, can someone could put a pic of 97L to have a better idea of this feature

Thanks

Hi Gusty. Here you go.

Thanks amigo I was enjoying 3 days at the hotel but i'm back my friends .... on this marvelous board with excellent posters

[underthwx]

Looks like an average tropical wave - something we haven't seen to many of this season.

Is this system going to recurve in the Atlantic, or track thru the carribean, and possibly the Gulf?..thanks

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N37W
TO 12N38W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE CONVECTION NEAR BY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND THE ITCZ.

[alienstorm]

This system in all likelihood will not develop to much dry air and unfavorable conditions. Doesn't look like a candidate.

[MaineWeatherNut]

This system in all likelihood will not develop to much dry air and unfavorable conditions. Doesn't look like a candidate.

Yes in the next few days it doesn't have much of a chance but it's beyond that that the NHC gives it a 30% chance of Developing at present...

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html


I think euro shows this in gulf next thursday, i could be looking at it wrong though

[drezee]

Yes, it does South of the Big Bend of FL...the system that goes into TX is something else...BTW, I am back from a long slumber...back to the tropics! My first post in 10 months+

[stormlover2013]

yeah and the only reason I posted this is because euro is showing but it could be wrong

[meriland23]

This system has plenty of chance and capability of strengthening, even into something potentially dangerous. Within a few days it will get more into favorable conditions.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like an average tropical wave - something we haven't seen to many of this season.

Is this system going to recurve in the Atlantic, or track thru the carribean, and possibly the Gulf?..thanks

check back on saturday..thx

[somethingfunny]

Looks like an average tropical wave - something we haven't seen to many of this season.

Is this system going to recurve in the Atlantic, or track thru the carribean, and possibly the Gulf?..thanks

This is certainly something that our friends in the Islands need to watch closely for either cyclone development or simply a heavy rainfall event, especially in the northern islands, and then it may or may not be torn apart by an upper level low and then may or may not be pushed into the North Atlantic by a trough. So the answer to all of your questions is maybe.

[northjaxpro]

Well, if 97L can survive the dry and stable air the next 72 hours, it may have a chance to develop once it can get hold together and get past 60 degrees longitude. But, that is a huge IF right now given all the dry air 97L has to battle against just to survive out there.