ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

[Alyono]

One should not use the ensemble mean to determine the chance of genesis. Instead, one should use the ensemble probabilities (the EC does NOT make those publicly available, one has to fork over I believe 6 figures to get the full EC to see those)

The ensemble probabilities are showing a 30-40% chance of development in the BOC early next week

[wxman57]

Note that the only requirement the NHC has for declaring an "invest" area is that they want to look more closely at a disturbance. No trace of a circulation or organized convection is required. Declaring an "invest" does not necessarily indicate a good chance of development.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%-30%

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over
the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable
for development on Saturday while the wave moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday and into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by Monday, where environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Well are we going to be able to stop calling this an EX!

[Bizzles]

NHC has Disturbance 1 on it's map. Would it be "Re-Ivest" 97L? or would they give it a new designation?

[Bizzles]

Well are we going to be able to stop calling this an EX!

Looks like soon!

[Bizzles]

Floater is up on NOAA site, but it just says Invest.

[baytownwx]

Floater on it has been up since this morning. Just waiting on NHC to pull its invest trigger

[alienstorm]

Definitely something brewing south of Hispaniola

[cycloneye]

Note=This thread was at active storms/invests forum as Invest 97L - Discussion.As soon this AOI is redesignated as Invest (97L or 99L) ,this thread will go back to Active Storms/Invests forum to continue the discussions there. To clarify,if this turns into 99L, this thread also goes to that forum because is the same wave that was when 97L was up. I will make a distintion at the title of thread about that.

[cycloneye]

Is in trouble.

TXNT28 KNES 291803
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 29/1745Z

C. 16.6N

D. 72.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...STRONG SFC SSELY FLOW IS BLOWING THROUGH THE INVEST AREA
THOUGH CSC OR MIDLEVEL CENTER REMAINS APPARENT IN VISIBLE LOOP. CONVECTION
IS ALSO WANING BUT STILL HAS .2 BANDING IN EIR AND .25 IN VIS USING
SHALLOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS
1.0...BUT NOT LIKELY FOR MUCH LONGER FT IS 1.0 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Sanibel]

Look at the disturbance to its west.

[cycloneye]

Look at the disturbance to its west.

Yes,they may have to focus the invest area around 80W.

[gatorcane]

Definitely something brewing south of Hispaniola

There is some spin there. Seems to be slowly moving NW. Last two runs of the ECMWF bring what seems to be something relating to this (tough to tell) NW towards Florida but nothing strong. Bears watching this time of year.

Saved image 120 hours:


Saved image 168 hours:

[tropicwatch]

Look at the disturbance to its west.

Yes,they may have to focus the invest area around 80W.

Saw that has a nice circulation, thinking it would be a epac system.

[blp]

Interesting it seems like the area has split into two with one heading toward BOC and the other toward Florida. Levi mentioned this in one of his videos a few days ago that with that elongated trough you sometimes get a split.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM earlier this week was trying to bring something weak NW into Florida but then it backed away from that solution. Now the ECMWF is picking up on that. I thought the NAVGEM was way out to lunch on that but maybe not.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon Discussion

THE MUCH ADVERTISED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR
ITS MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOP. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS REMAINS PERSISTENT
ON ITS EVOLUTION AND THE NAM IS SHOWING IN BIAS OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
WAVE. ALL MODELS DO SURGE MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTH
TEXAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE POP VALUES AS DOES THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE INCREASE POPS COMES MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE WATCH THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FOR ANY
CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLIGHT POTENTIAL AND TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN AND DO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST.

[alienstorm]

It definitely looks like 2 systems trying to develop these gyro's sometimes generated cyclogensis on the SW and NE portions of the troughs.

[tropicwatch]

Well the wind shear looks to be finally coming down some.