ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#381 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:06 pm

NDG wrote:Fairly strong narrow mid level ridging across the gulf coast this evening from the 0z sounding, in fact the narrow ridging extends from the Atlantic near Bermuda all the way to the eastern Pacific, TD 9 cannot gain that much latitude overall, the trough across the northern Plains is just going to keep up moving ENE and not dig southward to weaken the ridge.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... e0e9c6.gif


Yup. The main thing that will change the landfall point is a center relocation. It just doesn't appear likely that this can keep going northwest, at least right now, since I agree there's no big weakness in that ridge and none expected. Just a slight weakness that a stronger storm would slightly turn into. We will see what the 500mb heights do tomorrow.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#382 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:07 pm

lrak wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
lrak wrote:I don't wish for anything bad to happen but it sure would be nice to get a good swell out of this for S. TX. It's WAY over due! Any thoughts for a swell time if any for S. TX?


Would think Tuesday would be your day. :)


Oh, I'm already feeling sick...cough....sneeze around 4:30pm Monday :lol:

Thanks ozonepete!


You're welcome, lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1429
Age: 51
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#383 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:15 pm

ozonepete you meant Wednesday right...I have to get sick on the right day :wink:
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinions and are definitely not backed by any meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#384 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:23 pm

lrak wrote:ozonepete you meant Wednesday right...I have to get sick on the right day :wink:


Either one will work since it should start generating swells to the south Texas coast by Tuesday morning but even after landfall Tuesday night it will still keep generating a lot of swells through Wednesday on a long south to southeasterly fetch. Your choice. Maybe Wednesday would be better surf though.
0 likes   

User avatar
lrak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1429
Age: 51
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:48 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, TX

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#385 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:26 pm

I will start making the phone calls tonight to all the friends. Thanks again.
0 likes   
AKA karl

Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinions and are definitely not backed by any meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 110100
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#386 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#387 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:37 pm

lrak wrote:I will start making the phone calls tonight to all the friends. Thanks again.


Yeah go with Wednesday. And you're welcome. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5018
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#388 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:37 pm

ozonepete wrote:
drezee wrote:
drezee wrote:There is a bit of NNW shear...it also seems to be moving a bit more northerly than model depictions. Convection is displaced to the SE and will be until a tower pops over the center


Like clockwork here comes the tower and we may get off to the races until landfall...


Yeah kaboom almost right over where we think the center is. And shear does look to be dropping now.


It is over of Bay of Campeche and storms tend rapidly intensify.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#389 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Thanks Luis. yeah they are slowly nudging it northward. They still have to keep going a little more north though. :wink:
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#390 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:44 pm

As we have been saying:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north, which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of 25 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2186
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#391 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:55 pm

HH is on its way.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#392 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:37 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:You guys have been doing a good job with this one.

Keep it up!

Chuck


Thanks, Chuck. This is fun but a lot of times it's really hard to get right (as you know) so we all appreciate that you said that. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2186
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#393 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:43 pm

There is a little dry air out there but not enough to really effect TD 5 right now IMO.

Image
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3403
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#394 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:44 pm

Watching the floater loop, you can tell this is strengthening (to what degree will be determined when recon gets there) because if you watch near 20.5/94, you can see the low clouds (starting off nearly still) suddenly getting sucked up pretty quickly into the developing convection.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5618
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#395 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:18 pm

This will probably be Dolly by morning if organizational trends continue

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5340
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#396 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:21 pm

Nice pop in convection, just in time for recon.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2186
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#397 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:39 pm

So far still weird readings. Surface winds higher than flight level. :?:
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3006
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#398 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:50 pm

They are still flying at 25k ft, they should start desending soon and will give us some good reading. If we stay awake lol
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2186
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#399 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:52 pm

I was thinking the same thing, I thought they were descending earlier but apparently not. :x
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'

User avatar
panamatropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2186
Age: 54
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#400 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:59 pm

Hell of a dive :D
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017'


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests