ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#401 Postby tailgater » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:08 am

Hello Dolly
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#402 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:11 am

This was weird

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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#403 Postby tailgater » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:18 am

I think they are desending farther without going to far south. Didn't won't to nose dive too sharply. Or maybe he is doing his version of the crazy Ivans.
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#404 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:20 am

:uarrow: :D
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#405 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:21 am

Plenty of data to support 45kts
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#406 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:21 am

Looks like this may have almost doubled in intensity since earlier, and may already be stronger than the predicted landfall intensity... :eek:
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#407 Postby tailgater » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:25 am

It also seems to be on a more WNW track again. northerly shear has COC mostly exposed also.
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#408 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:49 am

Kind of surprising that the center would be that far west. :double:
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#409 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:00 am

This is Dolly now.
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#410 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:02 am

The forecast cone is kind of wild.
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#411 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:15 am

So is this not actually closed at the surface?
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#412 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:16 am

Someone will need to takeover on Recco observations.
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#413 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:53 am

The surface feature looks to be racing ahead, and is completely devoid of convection.
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Re:

#414 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:19 am

I agree...

bahamaswx wrote:The surface feature looks to be racing ahead, and is completely devoid of convection.


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Re: Re:

#415 Postby fendie » Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:24 am

somethingfunny wrote:I agree.

bahamaswx wrote:The surface feature looks to be racing ahead, and is completely devoid of convection.


Looks like something is going on around 95.5N 22.5W
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#416 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:14 am

From the recon thread:

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Through HDOB 34:

Image


It looks like the center may have reformed around 21.5N 95.5W, but the 4 am advisory from NHC has Dolly at 22.6N 94.8W.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#417 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:44 am

somethingfunny wrote:From the recon thread:

It looks like the center may have reformed around 21.5N 95.5W, but the 4 am advisory from NHC has Dolly at 22.6N 94.8W.


No, I think 22.6N 94.8W is the new center.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#418 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:48 am

I think I can see the center well NW of the convection north of 23N and approaching 96W. It's approaching the 24 hour forecast position already. Euro had been predicting it would move ashore by noon today. That may not be too bad a forecast if it doesn't slow down soon.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#419 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:52 am

Per the latest vortex Dolly is now near 23N & 95.5W.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#420 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:48 am

It looks good but it's really approaching Mexico rapidly and you may be right about landfall before sundown today wxman57. This will be our first named storm of 2014 to not reach hurricane strength.

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