ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

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panamatropicwatch
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#421 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:53 am

Might have to adjust the forecast cone a little more north.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:06 am

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-95&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

Shear has dropped dramatically so storms now firing over the center, making it appear more north. In my opinion.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:51 am

First visible image of the day (I brightened it for clarity). Low level banding confirming center is under the recent deep convection:

Image
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#424 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:00 am

It might be pretty close to the coast once the HH's get in there.
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#425 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:05 am

The center should remain over the BOC waters for another 12-16 hours. NHC predicts landfall approximately around 1AM on Wednesday.
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#426 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:26 am

Looks like it is headed to Mexico well south of Texas. Impressive blowup of convection that is for sure. The BOC continues to be a breading ground for cyclones year after year as of late.

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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#427 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:29 am

It's clearly moving faster than forecast. It may be at the NHC's 24-hr forecast point in a few hours. Unless it slows down soon it may be inland in 6 hours.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#428 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:36 am

Looks like the center is just outside the range of the long range radar out of Brownsville.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/tx/brownsville/bro/?lat=25.98174095&lon=-97.53533936&label=Brownsville%2c%20TX
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#429 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:38 am

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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#430 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:12 am

Convection sheared to the SE.
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#431 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:18 am

By the look of things Dolly will be making landfall by this afternoon unless a new LLC reforms further south closer to the convection and MLC.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:57 am

From the recent discussion:

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.


Looks like the anticipated slow down will occur after landfall now. That's going to mean a lot of rain for that area and potential flash floods/landslides. Here's a look at the topography of Mexico:

Image
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#433 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:44 am

High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.
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#434 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:52 am

Goodbye Dolly?
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#435 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:08 am

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:High res visible satellite shows the center is nearly completely exposed near 23.3 north and 96.9 west. Should be onshore by mid to late afternoon and with it's poor satellite presentation I would look for little change in intensity before landfall.


I see the same thing, Greg. The Euro has been forecasting landfall this afternoon for the last 3-4 days (vs. the GFS on Wednesday or later). It's 60 miles from land as of 30 minutes ago. I can see evidence that the core is tilted toward the SSE. There appears to be a MLC within the convection to the SSE of the center. There are 2-3 outflow boundaries emanating northward as well - not a sign of strengthening.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#436 Postby baytownwx » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:26 am

Just to add a visual to what wxman stated:
Image
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#437 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:28 am

Chris.....I have the center now only about 45-50 miles from the coast. Won't be long before Dolly moves inland....just a rainmaker for northeast Mexico.
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#438 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:41 am

It appears Dolly will be the first storm of the season that will not make it to hurricane strength.

Edit: Not that this was surprising or anything :lol:
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#439 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:48 am

potential landfall near 24N and 98W would be my best estimate. The LLC really did book it WNW while the MLC is lagging behind. I think the GFS was trying to develop a small ridge over Mexico, slowing Dolly down and shunting it NW a bit just offshore causing the lapse in landfall timing.
Last edited by USTropics on Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#440 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:48 am

:uarrow:

Actually, with the shear, it barely made tropical storm strength.
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