ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

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#441 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:57 am

WPC 5 day total precipitation:

Image

NHC stated in the discussion there could be a possibility of 10 inches in some locations.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#442 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:55 pm

Recon is finding a weak LLC down near 21.8N/96.4W. The northern center may be dissipating. Dolly could have several weak centers rotating around a broad low. Pathetic-looking storm...

Just saw the NHC public advisory putting the center at 22N/96.5W. Recon did not find a center at 22N, though. It is definitely south of there:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0305A-DOLLY.png
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#443 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:19 pm

Vortex says 21.7N / 96.4W. Northern center is dissipating.
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#444 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:43 pm

Based on the SFMR readings (some reliable in the high 40s) I would go with 50 kt for the current intensity.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#445 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:44 pm

Yet another center found near 22.1N/96.8W - that's 33nm NW of the first center found near 21.7N/96.4W. No way it's the same center unless it's moving NW at 30 kts. Looks like multiple weak vortices. Another one is dissipating up near 23N.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#446 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:59 pm

Yet another center near 21.5N/96.3W. They're all over the place! ;-)
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#447 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:18 pm

Interesting to see what they find in the NE quad under the convection if they make it there.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#448 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:27 pm

It sure looks like the center is reforming SW. Convection is wrapping around it too in that area.
Recon is finding lower pressures than at the vortex NW of where the last VM was sent...I think the center is somewhere in the BOC...pick a place...any place.
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#449 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yet another center near 21.5N/96.3W. They're all over the place! ;-)


She's keeping her options open ;-)
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#450 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:38 pm

Too many centers to keep track of. Just move ashore, Dolly! Euro indicates something interesting in the Gulf at day 10.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#451 Postby hriverajr » Tue Sep 02, 2014 3:49 pm

Not too much time before landfall, but appears to my eyes that shear has definitely decreased. Notice storm tops now beginning to move in anticyclonic nature north of the "center"
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#452 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:40 pm

The convection looks like it was getting ready for business. You can see a vortex vigorously spinning while diving SW into Tampico.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#453 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:52 pm

Love Pasch's 5pm disco... Very humble in his uncertainty... Very professional...
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#454 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:58 pm

Tropical Storm Dolly is looking much better organized this evening, a testament to lower shear as the storm approaches the Mexican coastline. Based on satellite presentation alone, I'd estimate winds have increased to around 60 mph.

Image
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#455 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:00 pm

The center reformation is also going to allow for more rain to impact this area. Earlier, the NHC was anticipating 10 inches in some locations. They have upgraded that to 15 inches now:

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.
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#456 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:17 pm

Looks like it is making landfall. Based on SFMR readings from earlier in lighter rain, I would agree with a 50 kt landfall intensity.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#457 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:38 pm

Blown Away wrote:Love Pasch's 5pm disco... Very humble in his uncertainty... Very professional...

Agreed a very professional discussion. Some snippets:

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.


With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt
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#458 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:17 pm

Image
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#459 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:28 pm

I can see the center on radar now...
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#460 Postby Steve820 » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:32 pm

It's getting very close to landfall, might make landfall tonight.
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