ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re:

#81 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:32 am

TheStormExpert wrote:More model support, yet the NHC drops the 5-day chances to 20%. Really? :roll:


Model support is increasing but it's a little beyond 5 days. The wave isn't look good now, but if this model support continues to increase, likely they will bump it up again..might be a couple of more days until they do so.

Models generally take it into the SW Alantic somewhere with solutions from Southern FL and weak (ECMWF) to a stronger system moving slowly NW north of Hispaniola (NAVGEM).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#82 Postby Senobia » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:37 am

Little change to 97L headed towards the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) was near 13°N, 47°W on Tuesday morning, about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, and was headed west to west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has changed little since Monday, and has a modest amount of spin but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 97L is located in a dry environment, which is keeping development slow. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C, which is warm enough to allow some slow development. The wave should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday and be near Puerto Rico on Saturday, according to the Tuesday morning runs of the GFS model. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict 97L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively. These odds are 10% lower than their previous advisory, and NHC has stopped running their suite of models on 97L.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2776
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#83 Postby Fego » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:51 am

Oh well, there is not 97L in the Navy page and no models run since 18z yesterday. Go figure.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#84 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:19 am

Fego wrote:Oh well, there is not 97L in the Navy page and no models run since 18z yesterday. Go figure.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


They'll reactivate 97L when it gets closer to development range but right now running all of the cyclone-specific models just isn't going to serve any real purpose, not with at least five days of variables to process before even arriving at a closed system to then forecast.

The global models can't be turned off. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:27 am

The 97L threads will remain here as SF said,97L will be reactivated soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#86 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:31 am

this is supposed to battle dry air and shear until about 60 to 65W but the way things have been this year I do think this will have to be watched first and foremost in the Lesser Antilles and then after from The Bahamas, Florida and the entire east coast as the area north of the islands seems to be more favorable

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#87 Postby Fego » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:39 am

somethingfunny wrote:
Fego wrote:Oh well, there is not 97L in the Navy page and no models run since 18z yesterday. Go figure.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


They'll reactivate 97L when it gets closer to development range but right now running all of the cyclone-specific models just isn't going to serve any real purpose, not with at least five days of variables to process before even arriving at a closed system to then forecast.

The global models can't be turned off. :lol:

:uarrow: Oh the globals, what we will do without them? :wink:
Last edited by Fego on Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#88 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:44 am

Recon possible for Thursday afternoon.

A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 16N 59W AT 28/1730Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#89 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Recon possible for Thursday afternoon.

A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 16N 59W AT 28/1730Z

So close to my home Guadeloupe :eek: should it happens first :oops:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#90 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:58 am

Hurricaneman wrote:this is supposed to battle dry air and shear until about 60 to 65W but the way things have been this year I do think this will have to be watched first and foremost in the Lesser Antilles and then after from The Bahamas, Florida and the entire east coast as the area north of the islands seems to be more favorable

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Yes indeed, and NHC will reactivate 97L I believe come late tomorrow and into Thursday as it gets near 60 degrees longitude. 97L, like other waves that has had to battle against the hostile conditions out in the Eastern Atlantic this season, has actually held its own imo. The 60 W longitude point westward seemingly has been the spot where these waves have slowly been able to try to develop and I think this situation with 97L will be not be any different.

The fact that NHC is arranging a possible Recon mission on Thursday shows their confidence that conditions will become at least marginally conducive for 97L to possibly develop by that time.
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#91 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:43 pm

Now only "slightly more" conducive:

A tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
favorable for significant development during the next couple of
days, but could become slightly more conducive by the end of the
week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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#92 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:48 pm

:uarrow:
Yeah gatorcane I love the terminology from NHC. "Slightly" and "marginally" conducive are the ones they use when these waves are struggling. 8-)
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#93 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:47 pm

If you recall the global models starting picking up on development of 96L which is now Cristobal when 96L was around the same area this wave is in. While 96L was traversing the central MDR, NHC backed down on development chances due to unfavorable conditions for about a day until they ramped it back up once the models starting latching on. Let's see as this wave gets a little further west if models start latching on in the next few cycles.
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#94 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:02 pm

There is a little convection near 13N so maybe 97L is getting ready to show signs of circulation.
Looks like Cristobal is forcing the Atlantic ridge a little south so that might effect the modeling.
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#95 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:10 pm

Not too much action for now...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST IN THE ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N46W TO 12N48W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN THE ITCZ WHICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 45W-50W.
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#96 Postby alienstorm » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:45 pm

There may be something trying to form around 12N 53W, we will need to see if it persist.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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#97 Postby srva80 » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:49 pm

Not related to 97L but the NHC is giving the wave about to move off Africa a 40% chance over the next 5 days
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Re:

#98 Postby rolltide » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:55 pm

Nimbus wrote:There is a little convection near 13N so maybe 97L is getting ready to show signs of circulation.
Looks like Cristobal is forcing the Atlantic ridge a little south so that might effect the modeling.


I agree. It looks like there is a slight turning there with a increase in clouds coming in from the south. Might be take off time.
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#99 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 26, 2014 3:59 pm

Convection definitely seems to have flared up today and is now covering a larger area, I do see a couple of areas within this convection that may have some spin. Certainly bears watching as we are in a climatologically favored zone for this wave though environmental conditions likely won't be favorable enough until the end of the week or the weekend where the wave will be in the vicinity of the Northern Leewards or a little north thereof.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#100 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2014 6:19 pm


A tropical wave located about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
favorable for significant development during the next couple of
days, but could become slightly more conducive by the end of the
week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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