WPAC: INVEST 90W

[somethingfunny]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
125.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030149Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND SLOW
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030741Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUT SLOW
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[somethingfunny]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
122.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

No longer a development candidate, but bringing heavy rains to the Philippines. I'm not sure why JTWC would say it's dissipated when it's just over land.

[euro6208]

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
122.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

No longer a development candidate, but bringing heavy rains to the Philippines. I'm not sure why JTWC would say it's dissipated when it's just over land.

Maybe the LLC is not expected to make it over to the SCS?

We'll see...

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140904 1200 13.1N 119.0E WPAC 15 1010

Back over water...

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 118.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT
FORMATIVE, CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD. THE LLCC IS WELL-DFFINED
IN A 050201Z ASCAT PASS WITH 05-10 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER THE SAME EASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 050911
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 13.1N

D. 118.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON LOOSLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES, LESS THAN 1.25
DG FROM OVERCAST. SMALL SIZE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
118.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS WELL-
DEFINED IN A 051357Z ASCAT PASS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP, PERSISTENT, CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

JMA (10 min)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 16.5N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 17.6N 114.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 18.6N 112.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.

[euro6208]

WTPN22 PGTW 060730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060151Z SEP 14//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 118.0E TO 19.0N 112.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 116.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 116.6E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 060140Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060140Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND INCREASED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 127.3E//
NNNN

[euro6208]

KNES- TOO WEAK
PGTW- 1.0

[euro6208]

14W FOURTEEN 140907 0600 18.7N 112.3E WPAC 25 1004

BT Upgrades to TD 14W!

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 111.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 111.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.8N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 110.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED WITH NO DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINING. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND WILL BE FULLY
DISSIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 6 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

14W FOURTEEN 140908 0600 21.1N 110.6E WPAC 25 1004

06Z...