EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:17 am

93E INVEST 140831 1200 13.0N 98.0W EPAC 20 NA

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:43 am

Is this the wave the Euro has been trying to ride up the Western Mexican coast?
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:43 am

That escalated quickly
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:45 am

Ntxw wrote:Is this the wave the Euro has been trying to ride up the Western Mexican coast?


AFAIK yes
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#5 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:48 am

Yellow Evan wrote:That escalated quickly


The EPAC just won't quit even at the face of horrible intra-seasonal variability, the background state of the this basin just over performs this year.
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Re: Re:

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:16 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:That escalated quickly


The EPAC just won't quit even at the face of horrible intra-seasonal variability, the background state of the this basin just over performs this year.


Yep. Though despite a suppressed CCKW, shear is below normal and vertical instability is above normal.
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Re: Re:

#7 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:31 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:That escalated quickly


The EPAC just won't quit even at the face of horrible intra-seasonal variability, the background state of the this basin just over performs this year.


Yep. Though despite a suppressed CCKW, shear is below normal and vertical instability is above normal.


I think you've told me that MJO often brings larger systems. Of course the correlation with CCKW's is probably similar to an extent. I think without those, if this system works would you agree it might be one of those smaller surrounded by dry air compact storms?
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Re: Re:

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:41 am

Ntxw wrote:I think you've told me that MJO often brings larger systems. Of course the correlation with CCKW's is probably similar to an extent. I think without those, if this system works would you agree it might be one of those smaller surrounded by dry air compact storms?


I'd be inclined to think so, yea.

Back in June, Cristina formed in a suppressed MJO (but active CCKW) and was fairly small.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:35 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of
Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain
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#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:54 pm

That was quick. I guess when we look at this season, we will have to take anticipated inactivity with a grain of salt. :lol:
Last year, we had to take anticipated activity with a grain of salt, this season is the opposite.
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#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:55 pm

What are the models showing in terms of intensity?
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Re:

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:25 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What are the models showing in terms of intensity?


Idk yet. GFS doesn't do much with it for some reason.

Statistical models will be interesting and is the real barometer here, but they are not out yet.
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Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:26 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:That was quick. I guess when we look at this season, we will have to take anticipated inactivity with a grain of salt. :lol:
Last year, we had to take anticipated activity with a grain of salt, this season is the opposite.


Last year, models were struggling with forward motion of systems off the MX coast. They moved way faster than expected.

Now the only issue with models seems to be MJO forecasting.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:59 pm

JB:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 1m
US models/European have tropical cyclone hitting southern tip Baja Cal next week.

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#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:03 pm

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Is this invest legit? I don't see anything regarding 93E here.
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#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:10 pm

I see what you mean, because there is also no floater up. I don't know if this has to do with it, but I noticed it was designated at only 10% when they usually wait until 30%. Maybe a little early?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:15 pm

Yellow Evan, I posted the image of 93E of NRL at the first post. I don't know what has occurred that there has been no 18z position yet of the invest.
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Re:

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I see what you mean, because there is also no floater up. I don't know if this has to do with it, but I noticed it was designated at only 10% when they usually wait until 30%. Maybe a little early?


They declare invests when the NHC wants statistical models to run. They often declare invests in the ATL at 10-20%.
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:37 pm

Looks like the ECMWF and the CMC are the only ones that do much with this.

The ECMWF has a parallel to the coast track. GFS and CFS ensembles have it moving away passing SW of Baja.
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#20 Postby Steve820 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:20 pm

We might see Norbert from this even though there seems to be little model support, the EPac can't ever stop producing the constant TCs!
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