EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 6:33 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south
of the south-central coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 6:46 pm

Last two NOGAPS runs aggressive with this

Image

NAM develops this to a mid-level TS
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#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 6:50 pm

18z GFS shows a TD stalling offshore.

In addition, shows the overall Baja patterning persisting in the long range.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#24 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:01 pm

18z HWRF has a hurricane in the gulf

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:21 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF has a hurricane in the gulf

Image


Things have just gotten serious.

Will we get our record 8th hurricane in a row from this system?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:53 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 93, 2014090100, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1000W, 20, 1009, DB
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#27 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:05 pm

Lesson from 2014 EPAC season, there is no such thing as a good model or bad model. The best model is the one that is the most aggressive according to seasonal trends.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:08 pm

A few hours late since invest was up but here is the SSD Floater.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:Lesson from 2014 EPAC season, there is no such thing as a good model or bad model. The best model is the one that is the most aggressive according to seasonal trends.


Quite the opposite from 2013, where models even the Euro were overagressive on everything.
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#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:10 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 09/01/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 39 44 48 49 48 49 48
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 39 44 48 49 48 49 48
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 33 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 24 26 25 25 25 24 20 21 15 20 17 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 6 5 5 6 -2 4 2 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 38 34 41 45 48 42 43 26 38 26 29 11 360
SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 31.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 165 166 166 166 166 167 169 171 171 170 170
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 8 11 9 11 9 11
700-500 MB RH 77 79 81 81 82 79 81 83 84 85 82 82 79
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -23 -12 1 6 49 50 66 56 35 38 46
200 MB DIV 101 110 79 72 85 58 56 36 48 24 37 29 33
700-850 TADV -6 -11 -10 -9 -8 -3 -2 -5 -6 -2 -4 -3 -5
LAND (KM) 391 360 329 291 253 204 124 77 44 22 131 157 69
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.3 22.5 23.6
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.5 100.9 101.3 101.7 102.4 103.0 103.7 104.6 105.6 106.8 107.8 108.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 43 44 45 45 46 44 40 39 37 9 46 41 43
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:17 pm

:uarrow: High shear I see there.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:20 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: High shear I see there.


Not sure if it's initialized right. Models were showing high shear with Marie. On the other hand, it could explain why the GFS/GFDL are passvie with this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#33 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:51 pm

What shear?

Image

SHIPS also likely overstated shear on Marie while the CIMSS analysis was showing only around 5kt of shear and that proved to be right
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#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 9:01 pm

Confirms my earlier thinking. All of a sudden, we may have another RI situation.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF has a hurricane in the gulf

Image


Things have just gotten serious.

Will we get our record 8th hurricane in a row from this system?


Image

Actually this is from the 850bmar levels. Probs just a TS at the surface.
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#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:16 pm

Image

Big shift east. Now shows a hurricane into Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#37 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Actually this is from the 850bmar levels. Probs just a TS at the surface.

Should be max wind at 10m, grids of of varies resolution result in different numbers
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:25 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Actually this is from the 850bmar levels. Probs just a TS at the surface.

Should be max wind at 10m, grids of of varies resolution result in different numbers
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


Exactly, which is only a mid-level TS based on 10 meter winds. A high-end TS based on pressure though.

Image
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#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:36 pm

Image

0z GFS fully out, seems to want to show a Doreen 77 while 18z HWRF showed a Marty 03 track.
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#40 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 01, 2014 12:02 am

Just like that and we're looking at another TC. Always take note even if it's just a single model calling for a particular event.
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