EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ADT is falling.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2014 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 21:17:41 N Lon : 110:52:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 973.7mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.9 degrees

[Cyclenall]

Norbert has been an enigma of a tropical cyclone; its track is erratic, movement defying forecasts, possible RI mentioned by the NHC which then had the cyclone look like waste hours later, and a poor satellite presentation as a 80 knot hurricane. It appeared that Norbert was about to explode 48 hours ago with RI but instead held steady and looked like crap. How often does the NHC mention RI and then the cyclone looks like its weakening? Not often. It looked better as a 55-60 knot TS then when it was 80 knots and the strength was increased 10 knots every 6 hours as it degraded...the same terms and descriptors were used as when it was 45 knots . It turned out to be a good call though as recon showed.



What Norbert would look like with a pinhole eye. Not real of course.



Ragged looking on the banding side early this afternoon.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 042346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 111.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA VERY SOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2014090500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1110W, 80, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 80, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1110W, 80, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 40, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 1110W, 80, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 15, 15, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[supercane4867]

TXPZ21 KNES 050022
TCSENP

A. 14E (NORBERT)

B. 05/0000Z

C. 21.9N

D. 110.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WELL DEFINED CDO MEASURING
1.8 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET ARE ALSO 4.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[supercane4867]

Leaving aside the lack of organization, these cloud top temperatures are pretty impressive

[supercane4867]

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES CLOSER...

8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 4
Location: 22.0°N 111.1°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much
during the past several hours. There has been no evidence of an eye
in either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the
central dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops
colder than -80C. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt. The
hurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening
is predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation
interacts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable
air from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over
progressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment. This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and
Norbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days. The
NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the
first day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
thereafter.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north-
northwestward or 330/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to move
generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The
model guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48
hours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC
track. Although none of the guidance models show the center of
Norbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift
means that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to
portions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to
the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the
coast. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As
noted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track
guidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Recon going tomorrow still

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE NORBERT
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 0214E NORBERT
C. 05/1300Z
D. 23.1N 112.7W
E. 05/1845Z TO 05/2115Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[AdamFirst]

Mark Sudduth will be heading to the desert southwest to track the remnants on The Weather Channel's behalf.

http://hurricanetrack.com/2014/09/04/he ... territory/

[Cyclenall]

Look at some of the IR loops for anyone up right now, Norbert is doing something weird and/or big. All of a sudden its convection "jumped" and is starting to wrap extremely fast like a RI episode would. Cloud tops are incredibly cold and broad even for Epac standards. Looks far better organized just in the last hour too. Using the Rainbow IR loop, there is this trailing line of ultra deep convection that moves towards the center and when it goes away that is when the jump occurred, a train of hot towers?

[Yellow Evan]

Mark Sudduth will be heading to the desert southwest to track the remnants on The Weather Channel's behalf.

http://hurricanetrack.com/2014/09/04/he ... territory/

Someone is desperate for TC's. Why couldn't he track Iselle, BTW?

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050855
TCDEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

Norbert has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. The hurricane continues to have a large central dense
overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. However, microwave data
shows that the convection under the overcast is asymmetric and
occurring mainly south of the center. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates are unchanged and the initial intensity remains
80 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/7. The cyclone is
expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next
3 days or so. The track guidance for this part of the forecast has
changed little since the last advisory, with all of the models
and the official forecast keeping the center offshore of the Baja
California peninsula. However, as mentioned in the previous
package, only a slight deviation to the right of the track would
bring hurricane-force winds to the coast. After 3 days, there
continues to be a large spread in the guidance, with the GFS and
NAVGEM calling for Norbert to recurve toward the northeast, while
the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models forecasting it to stall west
of the northern Baja California peninsula. This part of the
forecast again compromises between these extremes by showing a slow
northward motion.

Norbert should weaken during the forecast period as it moves over
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and interacts with
land. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast in showing Norbert weakening to a tropical storm in about
48 hours and degenerating to a remnant low by 96-120 hours. The
intensity forecast generally lies between the SHIPS model and the
intensity consensus.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 22.5N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 23.4N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 24.4N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 25.3N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 26.1N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z 29.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 111.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. NORBERT
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2014 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 22:54:18 N Lon : 111:45:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 969.0mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 5.1

Center Temp : -74.6C Cloud Region Temp : -80.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2014090512, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1118W, 80, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 80, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090512, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1118W, 80, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 40, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090512, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1118W, 80, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 15, 15, 1004, 160, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,

[euro6208]

What is the population of Baja California and area affected?

[Hurricane_Luis]

What is the population of Baja California and area affected?

Baja California Sur is 637,026 in 2010.
Baja California is 3.155 million

The Northern part of the peninsular has a much larger population compared to the south. Most major towns and cities are located on the eastern and southern coasts of the peninsular. To the north of Baja California, the closer you are to the US border the population increases.
The central parts of the whole peninsular is hot and dry so it is a very sparse area.

[supercane4867]

Won't be surprised if recon found Norbert stronger than its appearance

[NDG]

It looks like that the 970mb pressure estimate might have been good, recon's pressure looks to be only around 968-969 mb when you adjust it being that they are flying at 10k feet.