EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Latest flight level wind and dropsonde data suggest Norbert maybe near Cat.2 strength, an eye is also becoming evident on visible imagery

[hurricanes1234]

Possible upgrade by update time? It does look like the structure became more round and the eye is still somewhat there.

[hurricanes1234]

14E NORBERT 140905 1800 23.3N 112.1W EPAC 80 968

Pressure is quite low for a Category 1 hurricane.

[supercane4867]

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BAJACALIFORNIA SUR...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 112.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

Even though Norbert's cloud pattern remains fairly well organized in
satellite imagery, cloud top temperatures in the central dense
overcast have been slowly warming since this morning. Nevertheless,
an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum
flight-level winds of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 76 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, with a minimum pressure of 966 mb. These data
support an initial intensity estimate of 80 kt for this advisory.

While Norbert will be moving over above-normal SSTs of 27-29 deg C
west of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day
or so, some northeasterly shear and an influx of drier and more
stable air over the western part of circulation should contribute to
a slow weakening. After that time, Norbert should reach
substantially cooler waters and other thermodynamic variables should
become much less favorable. These negative factors should result in
a near-rapid weakening of the cyclone in 2-3 days, and remnant low
status is forecast in 3 days. Encountering even cooler waters on
day 4-5 and an increase in shear, Norbert should spin down further
and dissipate just beyond the end of the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast has not changed from the previous one and is near
the multi-model consensus IVCN.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate an initial motion toward the
northwest or 325/7 kt. Some re-building of the mid-level ridge to
the north of Norbert should cause a slight bend of the track toward
the left during the next day or two. After that time, Norbert is
expected to reach the western edge of the ridge and encounter a
weakness caused by a mid-latitude trough advancing eastward from
offshore of the California coast. This synoptic pattern should
result in a gradual northward turn during with some decrease in
forward speed. The mid-level center of the cyclone is likely to move
rapidly northeastward into the southwestern United States on days
3-4, leaving the low-level center meandering offshore the west-
central Baja California peninsula until dissipation. The NHC
forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies on
the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and east of the multi-
model consensus TVCE.

The hurricane-force wind radii have expanded in the northeastern
quadrant based on SFMR data from the aircraft and now extend out 40
n mi from the center. Any deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring hurricane conditions onshore in the hurricane
warning area.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.6N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.3N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 26.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 28.4N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 29.2N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 29.5N 117.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon data and better look earlier, I think it peaked at 1200Z at 85 kt, with a pressure of 964mb.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EYE PASSING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 112.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
SATURDAY...WITH FASTER WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. A WEATHER STATION OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
LOCATED AT PUERTO CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53
MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE
SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Has a pretty decent eye if you ask me.

[Alyono]

looking more like a cat 3 now on satellite

[CrazyC83]

Surprised to see it intensifying, but yeah maybe Recon would find a stronger storm if they went in tonight. There is another Recon flight tomorrow?

[Yellow Evan]

Surprised to see it intensifying, but yeah maybe Recon would find a stronger storm if they went in tonight. There is another Recon flight tomorrow?

Well, it is moving over warm SST's and into lower shear.

[Yellow Evan]

No recon for tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

Could they still send out recon if they suspect strengthening? Or is proximity to land the main factor?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I will be bullish. If it tracks over the same environment, I will not be surprised to see RI to a major hurricane over the next 12-24 hours. It is moving slowly, and would mean it would remain over a favorable environment. It looks impressive with a pinhole eye, and impressive convection over the eastern quadrant. The SW quadrant looks a bit sheared.

[Kingarabian]

06/0000 UTC 24.0N 112.6W T5.5/5.5 NORBERT -- East Pacific

SAB supports 100kts.

ADT jumping:

Code: Select all

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.3     4.8     6.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -43.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

[CrazyC83]

Based on all that data, I would go with 95 kt right now.

[Kingarabian]

H. REMARKS...NORBERT HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY EVEN IN PAST 6 HOURS WITH
WELL DEFINED EYE APPEARING IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MG EYE WITH SURROUNDING AND
RING TEMP OF W GIVES DT=6.0. MET=5.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS (6 HOUR CHANGE OF 1.0).

[Yellow Evan]

ADT finally switched to an eye pattern.

[Kingarabian]

Based on all that data, I would go with 95 kt right now.

I agree.

If it weren't for constraints, SAB would've been at 6.0 which easily means MH. Tough call.

Unexpectedly went into RI.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2014090600, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1126W, 95, 961, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 80, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090600, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1126W, 95, 961, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 40, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090600, , BEST, 0, 240N, 1126W, 95, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 15, 20, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,