EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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#221 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:50 pm

How does this RI'ing impact the longer-term setup, could it allow for Norbert to last farther north?
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#222 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:How does this RI'ing impact the longer-term setup, could it allow for Norbert to last farther north?


Not significantly IMO.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#223 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:56 pm

Racing against time...sharp SST gradient ahead

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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#224 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:58 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Racing against time...sharp SST gradient ahead

http://i.imgur.com/MlfC8c3.jpg


Probs has 6-12 hours left.
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#225 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:01 pm

I'd go 100kt based on T5.5/102kt from SAB and TAFB. The UW-CIMSS ADT CI# is too low for rapidly intensifying storms, but I'm not sure the eye is clear enough for a T6.0/115kt like what the Raw T# currently is.
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#226 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:05 pm

This basin will not quit. I'd almost call this a MH, but would like to see the eye cleared.

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#227 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:07 pm

That point to the northwest at the top of the screen is near 30N latitude, correct?
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#228 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:09 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:I'd go 100kt based on T5.5/102kt from SAB and TAFB. The UW-CIMSS ADT CI# is too low for rapidly intensifying storms, but I'm not sure the eye is clear enough for a T6.0/115kt like what the Raw T# currently is.

And ADT is struggling to get the center position right :roll:

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#229 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That point to the northwest at the top of the screen is near 30N latitude, correct?


Yes. May be a record for highest latitude major.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#230 Postby CaliforniaResident » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:25 pm

The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#231 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:28 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!


Nope, the white thing on the NHC means a remnant low actually.
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#232 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:30 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 23:54:10 N Lon : 112:33:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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#233 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:31 pm

I think it could hold its own over 25-26C for a short while.... and not degenerate completely. EPAC basin crossers usually survive these types of waters until shear kicks in.

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Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#234 Postby CaliforniaResident » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
CaliforniaResident wrote:The 5 day track has San Diego in the "cone" to hit as a tropical depression on Tuesday morning!


Nope, the white thing on the NHC means a remnant low actually.


Whatever it is, it looks like it has a good chance of getting the Southern California coast some much needed rain! Maybe 1-2 inches in downtown San Diego which is very rare in a single system even during the winter months (where we get 90 percent of our rain), let alone in a month where zero rain is the norm (the median rainfall in all months from May through September is zero).
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#235 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:35 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 23:54:10 N Lon : 112:33:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.7 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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#236 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:37 pm

If only it could wobble north, where the warmest waters so far it could reach, then it would explode.
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#237 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think it could hold its own over 25-26C for a short while.... and not degenerate completely. EPAC basin crossers usually survive these types of waters until shear kicks in.

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It's small, so it can't hold on as easily. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... wg9shr.GIF Shear could drop a little more though, but by tomorrow, epic dry air should take over.
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#238 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:45 pm

IMO the estimate of the NHC is quite conservative. It has organized even more, looking like 105-115 kts. Time may run out for intensification, but this would be a category 3 already, making it possibly 7th.
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#239 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:47 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:IMO the estimate of the NHC is quite conservative. It has organized even more, looking like 105-115 kts. Time may run out for intensification, but this would be a category 3 already, making it possibly 7th.


Well, the eye is not all that warm yet.
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#240 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:47 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 23:59:33 N Lon : 112:40:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.9 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -53.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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