EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#241 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:50 pm

Deeper convection continues to wrap around the eye, will NHC go for 100kt at 8PM?
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#242 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:51 pm

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#243 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:06 pm

Eye def warming 105 knts would not shock me.
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#244 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:10 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 24:01:53 N Lon : 112:44:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 968.6mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.9 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -41.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees
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#245 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:19 pm

Also suspecting hurricane warnings will be extended northward to the Punta Abreojos/San Ignacio area.
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#246 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:27 pm

Sucks that there's no recon :cry: .
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#247 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:28 pm

Can they call for abrupt Recon flights if warranted? Such as if this is seen to be a potential SW CONUS threat...
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#248 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can they call for abrupt Recon flights if warranted? Such as if this is seen to be a potential SW CONUS threat...


Too late sadly probs.
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#249 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:35 pm

This system is a bit like Norbert 08 in that they both deepened quite a bit near land.

Norbert back in 08 hit near Puerto Charle, a very small coastal town with next to no electricity. The most recent hurricane to hit BCS, Jimena 09, hit a barrier offshore island, before crossing the coast twice, once as a Cat 2 near Puerto San Carlos and once as a Cat 1 near Cabo San Larzo. It made a total of 4 landfalls on Baja, making Jimena Baja's Fay 08.
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#250 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:36 pm

Image

If that gray wraps around...

I also notice that Norbert has begun to shrink. Smaller storms do tend to hold their own. Wouldn't say it's becoming annular though.

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#251 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:38 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/tvhwGvz.gif

If that gray wraps around...

I also notice that Norbert has begun to shrink. Smaller storms do tend to hold their own.


Smaller storms are less prone to dry air. If the gray warps around, it could make it to Cat 4 IMO.
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#252 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:39 pm

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 060238
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO
* WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
* NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

wtf
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#253 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:40 pm

still a cat 2.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#254 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:41 pm

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014

The satellite presentation of Norbert has improved dramatically
since the last advisory. A ragged eye is apparent in infrared
imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -70C. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z were T5.5/102 kt, and the initial
intensity is set a bit below that value at 95 kt for this advisory
given the very rapid change in the satellite appearance and the
earlier recon data. This recent intensification occurred as Norbert
moved over waters warmer than 29C, and some additional strengthening
is still possible in the next few hours. However, SSTs steadily
decrease along the track going forward, which should result in
gradual weakening beginning by 12 hours. Steadier weakening is
expected beyond 24 hours as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone
moves into a drier and more stable airmass. By 72 hours Norbert is
expected to become post-tropical and then weaken to a remnant low
around day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward by 10-15 kt through 24 hours to account for the current
intensity trend, and is about 5 kt higher than the previous advisory
after that time. This forecast is a little above the intensity
consensus through 36 hours and close to the consensus afterward.

Smoothing through some short-term wobbles, the initial motion
estimate is 320/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,
as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-
level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48
hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough
moves into the U.S. West Coast. This should result in a weakening of
the steering currents, leaving the low-level center of Norbert to
drift slowly northward or move erratically at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, but has been adjusted a little to the east to account
for the initial position and motion. This track is close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus through 72 hours, and shows little net
motion after that time.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#255 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:44 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 24:04:11 N Lon : 112:48:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 961.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.9 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees
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#256 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:44 pm

I think when Recon found those abnormally low pressures, it was the start of it rapidly deepening. Not sure.
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Re:

#257 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think when Recon found those abnormally low pressures, it was the start of it rapidly deepening. Not sure.


It was probs around 85 knts soon after recon left (at 21z). L
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#258 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:45 pm

5 Day cone's been shortened though. Doesn't make the CA border any more.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#259 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:46 pm

No major hurricane yet but there's almost no reason for it not to become one in the next few hours
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#260 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:48 pm

Anyone here get this Danielle 10 kind of vibe? IIRC that was assigned 95 knts in the evening despite higher intensity estimates, and then overnight, NHC upped it to Cat 4 in a spec ail advisory
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