EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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#261 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:52 pm

This should be a major...dvorak image is convincing to me

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#262 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:53 pm

ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.
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Re:

#263 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:58 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.

ADT likes to do that for every storm in the process of clearing out an eye
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#264 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:00 pm

Which is what it is doing, trying to clear it out.

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Re:

#265 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:07 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:ADT is classifying this with a pinhole eye.


That eye/center sure warmed pretty quick on ADT


014SEP05 213000 4.6 972.7 79.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -66.36 -72.23 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.65 112.24 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 220000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.06 -71.19 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.69 112.28 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 223000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -67.56 -70.18 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.74 112.33 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 230000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -66.36 -69.93 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.78 112.38 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP05 233000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -55.86 -69.92 UNIFRM N/A 16.1 23.82 112.44 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 000000 4.6 972.6 79.6 4.3 4.8 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -43.06 -70.81 EYE -99 IR 16.1 23.86 112.50 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 003000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.4 4.7 6.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -50.76 -71.23 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.90 112.56 FCST GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 010000 4.6 972.5 79.6 4.6 5.9 6.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -53.56 -72.12 EYE -99 IR 6.4 23.99 112.68 SPRL GOES15 37.6
2014SEP06 013000 4.8 968.6 84.8 4.8 5.9 6.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -41.26 -72.53 EYE -99 IR 6.4 24.03 112.74 SPRL GOES15 37.5
2014SEP06 020000 5.2 961.0 94.8 5.2 5.9 6.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -19.13 -72.50 EYE/P -99 IR 6.4 24.07 112.81 SPRL GOES15 37.5
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#266 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:09 pm

Oh my god! this storm might actually bring in some rain to California
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#267 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:11 pm

Well this storm is catching me off guard. Though this hurricane peaked yesterday. Can he become a major?
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#268 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:16 pm

Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.
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#269 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:29 pm

It's at the temporary weakening stage now that the pinhole eye is gone according to ADt. Thyey should rise again early tomorrow.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 24:06:49 N Lon : 112:48:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.8 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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Re:

#270 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:30 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Reminds me a bit, I mean a BIT of Hurricane Raymond last year, and this obviously has a different track. It reminds me of Raymond because of an unexpected RI (?) and that it had a sudden "pinhole" eye popping out, surrounded by ominously thick and cold convection, which made it a major. I dunno if Norbert will officially be a major, but I think it can.


Raymond 13 wasn't that unexpected RI wise. Norbert 14 was. You are probably thinking this because both are small.
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#271 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:44 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2014 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 24:09:00 N Lon : 112:51:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.2mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 97km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees
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#272 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:48 pm

Looks 105-110kt to me. May attain Category 4 intensity if the eye continues to warm.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#273 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:49 pm

At this point I believe Cat.4 is a real possibility

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#274 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:57 pm

I'd go with 110 knts now.

This thing seems likely to register 6.0 on the Dvorak. Could be higher, but constraints will limit it to .5 per 6 hours from here. We are highly unlikely to get a 7.0 due to that reason alone.
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#275 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:09 pm

Going full out. Has to be at least a major hurricane.

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#276 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:09 pm

Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.
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#277 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:10 pm

Ill be shocked if this is not 100 knts at 6z.
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#278 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:11 pm

Given the much higher initial intensity, they would likely have to put out a Special Advisory to revise the forecast if they believe the ADT is accurate.
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Re:

#279 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.


Unless they want to suddenly revise the warnings (they IMO should), there's no need, but SMN does not like messing with the warnings late at night.
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#280 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed, looks like about 110 kt, and I would expect a Special Advisory by 05-06Z at this rate.

Agreed. Last time I called for a special Advisory, it didn't pan out. Maybe this time it will be warranted for due to its proximity to land.
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