EPAC: NORBERT - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#301 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 2:19 am

Up to 105kt

EP, 14, 2014090606, , BEST, 0, 244N, 1131W, 105, 957, HU
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#302 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:52 am

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since
then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the
eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall
becoming asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115
kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates
peaked at 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the
decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.

The initial motion is now 315/7. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a
mid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should
result in a weakening of the steering currents. The track guidance
has come into better agreement that Norbert should move
northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models
showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of
the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track reflects this
change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward
drift after 72 hours. The new forecast track is a little to the
right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and
after that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE.

The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea
surface temperatures. The cyclone should thus weaken through the
forecast period. Despite the higher initial intensity compared to
6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should
decay into a remnant low in about 3 days. The new intensity
forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36
hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.6N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 30.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#303 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:39 am

Wow, I lost count of how many majors the EPAC has had so far this season, when conditions are meant to be ripe they are ripe for just about any storm that has formed so far this season to strengthen more than forecasted.
But as expected it looks Norbert is now starting to reach the cooler SSTs and we have seen its peak last night.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#304 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:50 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
WHEN THE CENTER OF NORBERT REACHES COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. LARGE SWELLS
AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#305 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:53 am

Media stories are starting to pick up. Haven't seen too many until this morning.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#306 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 06, 2014 7:19 am

Microwave pass from 3 hrs ago:

Image

Latest satellite presentation is starting to decay with the eye not as apparent as a few hours ago:
Image
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#307 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 06, 2014 8:09 am

The blend between the two would probably mean that Norbert is now back to Cat 2, IMO.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
06/1200 UTC 24.9N 113.8W T4.5/5.5 NORBERT -- East Pacific
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#308 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:21 am

Agreed it probably peaked at 110 kt at 0600Z. Reality is setting back in though...I would go with 100 kt at synoptic time and 95 kt for the advisory.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#309 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:36 am

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

First visible images reveal a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep
convection. Nevertheless, after a rapid intensification observed on
satellite last night, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers are
decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 100 kt. A
portion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and
moving into a more stable environment. This should result in a
gradual weakening during the next 24 hours, with a faster rate of
weakening thereafter. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low
over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California
peninsula in 3 days or so.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be steered by the
flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. In a 48 hours, the
cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and
will begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then,
Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone, moving little
in a weak low-level flow. There is high confidence in the short-
term track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond
3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to dissipate in situ
near the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or
continue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The
NHC prefers the former global model solution.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 25.0N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 28.2N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#310 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:07 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 114.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA
* SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. NORBERT
HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#311 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:16 pm

Cloud tops warm, but eye is still decent.
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#312 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:25 pm

EP, 14, 2014090618, , BEST, 0, 251N, 1145W, 90, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 90, 75, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090618, , BEST, 0, 251N, 1145W, 90, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 40, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
EP, 14, 2014090618, , BEST, 0, 251N, 1145W, 90, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 15, 20, 1008, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORBERT, D,
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#313 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:39 pm

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

The eye continues to be evident on visible images, but the
convection is not as deep as it was earlier. In fact, the strongest
convection is limited to the southern semicircle where the ocean is
still warm. Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, and based
on blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered
to 90 kt. The northern portion of the circulation is already
reaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment.
This should result in steady or even rapid weakening during the next
24 hours, with a slower rate of weakening thereafter as the
circulation gradually spins down. Norbert is expected to become a
remnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja
California peninsula in 3 days or so.

Norbert has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7
knots. It is not necessary to make any significant adjustment to the
previous forecast track since the global models are not showing any
changes in the steering flow. As indicated earlier, Norbert is
forecast to move with the flow around the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In
48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude
westerlies and begin to move northward and then northeastward. By
then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone and will be moving
little in a weak low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend
indicated by the multi-model consensus.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.3N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#314 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 7:05 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 115.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#315 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2014 9:35 pm

HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

The cloud pattern of Norbert has degraded significantly over the
past few hours. The eye is no longer apparent, and in fact there is
no deep convection north of the center where SSTs are below 26C.
Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial
intensity of 75 kt is based on the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate and
the Dvorak estimate from SAB. Rapid weakening is expected to
continue during the next 24 hours, as the cyclone will move over
colder waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Norbert
should then weaken more slowly to remnant low status in 2 to 3 days
over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula.
The new NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model
consensus.

Norbert has jogged a bit to the left over the past few hours, with
an initial motion estimate of 300/07. The synoptic reasoning for the
track forecast remains unchanged. Norbert will be steered around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States, which should result in a turn toward the
north-northwest by 24 hours. By 48 hours, Norbert should turn
northward as it moves into a break in the ridge at the base of a
mid-latitude trough off the U.S. West Coast. A slow northeastward
motion is shown late in the period as the shallow cyclone will be
embedded in weak low-level flow. The new NHC track is similar to the
previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion.

The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from a
recent ASCAT-B pass.

Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 25.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#316 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 06, 2014 10:02 pm

That came apart fast.
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#317 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:53 am

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014

...NORBERT SLOWLY WEAKENING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 116.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
NORBERT WILL CONTINUE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 8 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#318 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:52 am

If San Diego gets 4 sprinkles out of the left overs of Norbert is going to be a lot. People in Social Media that were calling for a tropical storm to affect SoCal I am wondering what they have to say to their followers, if they have any left, maybe blame the GFS, lol.
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Tropical Storm

#319 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:35 am

Downgraded to TS.

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014

Deep convection has been decreasing quickly during the last several
hours, and only a small area of cold cloud tops remains to the
south of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are falling, and
the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using an average of the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The quick weakening
of Norbert is due to the influence of cool waters of around 25 C and
a dry stable air mass. These factors will become even more
unfavorable along the expected track of Norbert, and should cause
the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, or
maybe even sooner. Once Norbert becomes a remnant low, the cyclone
is expected to slowly spin down and then open into a trough in about
4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one,
mainly due to the observed rate of weakening.

Norbert is still moving west-northwestward, but it is expected to
turn toward the northwest and then north during the next day or so
when it feels the influence of a deep-layer trough west of
California. A slow down and turn toward the northeast or east is
expected after that time when the shallow system is steered by the
low-level flow toward the Baja California peninsula. No significant
change was made to the previous track forecast, and it lies close to
the GFS/ECMWF consensus.

Although the system is weakening quickly, tropical moisture
associated with Norbert and the Pacific ITCZ will continue to
spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United
States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash
flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 27.9N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 29.1N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 29.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: NORBERT - Hurricane

#320 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:40 am

NDG wrote:If San Diego gets 4 sprinkles out of the left overs of Norbert is going to be a lot. People in Social Media that were calling for a tropical storm to affect SoCal I am wondering what they have to say to their followers, if they have any left, maybe blame the GFS, lol.


That's why I was waiting and watching before saying much. I didn't understand why the media was picking up on it so soon.
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