WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

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WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:24 pm

91WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-104N-1357E.

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#2 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:41 am

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 030103Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.


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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:40 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
031023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ALSO ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:37 am

12Z GFS significantly weaker only a weak tropical storm that recurves out to sea...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#5 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:25 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 040129Z ASCAT PASS AND
JTWC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OF WEAK (05-15
KNOT) WINDS IN THE AREA, BUT NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS TURNING IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE
CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD
CHANNEL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE HELPING TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:22 am

91W INVEST 140904 1200 13.6N 127.0E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:34 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 041808Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS AND 041235Z ASCAT PASS INFERS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY WAS POSITIONED.
WHILE NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT, BASED ON
ASCAT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE
15-20 KTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FUELING THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:00 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
129.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH
PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FUELING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:59 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.2N 126.6E TO 29.4N 131.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
052332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N
127.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N
127.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF THE LLCC TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUT DUE TO THE FLARING CONVECTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE POSITIONING AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATES A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTING A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070200Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:09 am

JMA (10 min)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 24.2N 126.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:12 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5N
127.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 060452Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
060137Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER 20
TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:17 am

KNES AND PGTW AT 1.0
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:21 am

Image

Okinawa and the southern japanese islands getting drenched...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:40 am

06Z shows steady strengthening and barely missing the main japanese islands with a peak of 963 mb near Tokyo...Euro agrees as well...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W

#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 06, 2014 8:47 pm

TS 1414 (FENGSHEN)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 7 September 2014

<Analyses at 07/00 UTC>
Scale-Intensity-Center position N27°10'(27.2°) E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM) NW150km(80NM)
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:22 am

13W FENGSHEN 140907 0600 27.9N 130.9E WPAC 35 996

Tropical Storm Fengshen!
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:34 am

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH
OF SASEBO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
DEVELOPING FEEDER BANDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS A REGION OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEEN OBSERVED MOVING TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. OBSERVATIONS NEAR
AMAMI, JAPAN INDICATED 24 KNOTS WITH A 062159Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
REFLECTING AN IMPROVING LLCC STRUCTURE. A RECENT 06/19Z AMSU CROSS-
SECTION INDICATED A 2 DEGREE WARM CORE ANOMALY IN THE 10 TO 12 KM
RANGE, SUPPORTING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF
TROPICAL WARNINGS WAS INITIATED. TD 13W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND ESTABLISHES
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. DRY AIR AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE SSTS AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL COMPETE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INITIALLY FAVORING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, BUT EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THE START OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 36. AS TD 13W CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTHEASTWARD THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE COMPLETION OF THE ETT
PROCESS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:46 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 27.9N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 29.2N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 30.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 32.5N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 34.7N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.3N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 131.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:47 am

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 070442Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 070022Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWED 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS THE ASCAT PASS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 13W IS ACCELERATING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL COMPETE WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND
TAU 36 WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS, WITH
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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xtyphooncyclonex
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#20 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:00 am

Looks like this would be a typhoon

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°50'(32.8°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM
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