WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

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Alyono
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#21 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:24 pm

JT ignoring data again

ship obs indicate this is a 55-60 kt storm. JT saying 45 kts

I might even listen to IMD over JTWC at this rate
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#22 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:17 pm

STS 1414 (FENGSHEN)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 7 September 2014

<Analyses at 07/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°50'(28.8°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE330km(180NM)
NW170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 08/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°10'(30.2°)
E137°35'(137.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 08/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°50'(31.8°)
E141°30'(141.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°40'(34.7°)
E148°50'(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°40'(37.7°)
E159°55'(159.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45km/h(24kt)
Central pressure 976hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:15 pm

Image

50 knots and forecast to become our 6th typhoon!

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN SLOWLY WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
072145Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC SUPPORTING THE
POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, IT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS AN AMALGAMATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATE
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT TAP ALONG THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING BUT REMAINS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS (15 TO
25 KNOTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. TS 13W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND INCREASING VWS, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 13W TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INTERACTION WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 24 WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS AND COMPLETE ITS TRANSFORMATION INTO A STORM-
FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED, WILL LEAD TO FASTER TRACK SPEEDS IN THE
LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:19 pm

Image

eye developing.
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:29 pm

18Z shows steady strengthening peaking at 957 mb southeast of Japan.

EURO...agreement with GFS on track...

Image
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:04 pm

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:28 pm

Dvorak numbers now a consensus 3.5 (55 knots) although AMSU estimates saying 72 knots. I could see JTWC increasing the intensity to at least 55 knots maybe 60 knots?...
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:37 am

13W FENGSHEN 140908 0600 29.9N 137.1E WPAC 55 982

06Z update up to 55 knots!
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#29 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:38 am

Dont ignore the JMA, they upped this to severe tropical storm
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:43 am

13W FENGSHEN 140908 1200 30.9N 139.5E WPAC 55 982

12Z update remains the same...
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:02 am

Image
Image

Interesting that this is no longer forecast to become a typhoon...

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 081210Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A ROUND
MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MATCHING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS FENGSHEN CONTINUES TO HAVE
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 13W CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY AND INCREASING VWS, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 13W TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 24 WILL BEGIN
THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AND COMPLETE ITS
TRANSFORMATION INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED, WILL LEAD TO
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:14 am

Image

Even looks better than the atlantic hurricanes...This is a typhoon...
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:04 am

Image
Image
Image
Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:08 am

Image

Very high rain rate...looks like a typhoon...
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:28 am

Image

Fengshen has been one of my favorite names on the list...

First time it was used? Back in 2002 when it became a monster category 5 Super Typhoon peaking at 145 knots...

Fengshen means God of Wind in chinese...
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#36 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:47 pm

Fengshen killed over 1,000 people in the Philippines last 2008, it was due to a major sinking of a ship and floods over the Visayas. I guess this is among the top 5 costliest typhoons in our country, I wonder why the name Fengshen was not requested for retirement.
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:19 am

13W FENGSHEN 140909 0600 32.9N 145.0E WPAC 55 982

Down to 55 knots from both JMA and JTWC...
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 5:09 am

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
BEGINS TO GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 090420Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE DIMINISHING
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. THE
LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION SHOWS THE WARM CORE OF THE SYSTEM HAS
STARTED TO WEAKEN AND LOWER AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GO
THROUGH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP ALONG WITH THE PGTW POSITION FIX WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE
TO A MID-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
OFFSETTING HIGH LEVELS (50 TO 60 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS
13W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AS
IT ACCELERATES WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO UNDERGO ETT. THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A BAROCLINIC, COLD-CORE LOW AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:15 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 33.9N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.7N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.6N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 148.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED AND ELONGATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. A 091149Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME ELONGATED
WHILE A 091059Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM THAT IS UNDER GOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TS 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS EAST-
NORTHEAST TRACK AS IT ACCELERATES WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BECOMES A
BAROCLINIC, COLD-CORE LOW WHILE COMPLETING ETT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200ZIS 20 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : FENGSHEN - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:39 am

Image

Am hoping this gets upgraded to a typhoon in post season analysis...

Image\

Monster Post-Fengshen
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