ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:42 am

AL, 91, 2014090606, , BEST, 0, 95N, 90W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014090612, , BEST, 0, 95N, 104W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014090618, , BEST, 0, 95N, 120W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014090700, , BEST, 0, 95N, 135W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2014090706, , BEST, 0, 95N, 150W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Post away.

Link to TT thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116707&p=2411088#p2411088
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:32 pm, edited 10 times in total.
Reason: To change to Post-Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:47 am

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#3 Postby fci » Sun Sep 07, 2014 1:35 am

Another impressive one off the coast with a pretty high % in 5 day period.
Let's see if it holds together and avoids the inevitable "Hostile environment"
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#4 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:07 am

This one has a good chance of developing and sustaining itself as it moves across the hostile Tropical Atlantic.

The 0Z Euro has a particularly interesting scenario with the system moving west at Day 10 under a sprawling western Atlantic ridge. Of course subject to LOTS of change but it's probably the most eye-opening thing we've seen in a model run in awhile.

I'd argue this is most interesting CV entity we've seen since 2011, which isn't saying much, but still...

P.S. The NHC just gave this a HIGH (60%) chance of development thru 5 days.
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#5 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:30 am

It's becoming extremely apparant now that nothing is going to develop in the MDR prior to the next MJO arriving. The last few systems looked pretty good as well, only to be swallowed up by the subsiding air, and if the latest (legitimate) model runs are any indication, this one will suffer the same fate.
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#6 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:14 am

Id say 20% chance at most of this becoming anything
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#7 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:44 am

SAL blowing in from the north may force it to feed off the ITCZ for a while.
Hope they keep it an invest for the model runs regardless.
That ridging scenario is not good hope it changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2014 6:47 am

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave
that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

.
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#9 Postby weatherfanatic » Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:19 am

Pego, the NHC did fix the issue right away. The text was all correct but they had the east coast on red, the one off africa graphical at 0% and 90L at 10%. It got all scrambled up somehow. Looking impressive I have to agree that IMO its going to push through.
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#10 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:46 am

First mention and fast appearence as a special feature for 91L...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA THIS MORNING MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL
LIKELY BE ANALYZED ON THE 07/1200 UTC AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY STOUT PRESENTATION OF
CYCLONIC TURNING STRONGEST IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LEVELS WITHIN
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
BELOW 850 MB...IT APPEARS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF CYCLONIC MOTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...ONE NEAR
10N15W AND ANOTHER NEAR 17N18W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 16W-22W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:47 am

Convection collapsed when it moved offshore, sending a large outflow boundary out to the SW quadrant. You can see a small eddy associated with 90L in the top left of the image.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2014 7:59 am

12z Best Track:

More south in latitude than the 06z which was at 9.5N.

91L INVEST 140907 1200 9.1N 16.0W ATL 20 1009
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:26 am

There isn't much at 9.1N either, Luis. It's always the NEXT disturbance that's REALLY going to develop (per the models).
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:42 am

I see some spin around 10N, 18W:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I circled it in yellow below:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:54 am

What is more clear is that most of the convection is south of 10N which is good in terms of getting ITCZ moisture feed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:56 am

cycloneye wrote:What is more clear is that most of the convection is south of 10N which is good in terms of getting ITCZ moisture feed.

You're right :) about that. Whereas, do you think that this feature should be a player for us in the Lesser Antilles? What are your best estimations Luis?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:07 am

Gustywind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What is more clear is that most of the convection is south of 10N which is good in terms of getting ITCZ moisture feed.

You're right :) about that. Whereas, do you think that this feature should be a player for us in the Lesser Antilles? What are your best estimations Luis?


I only say for now is very early to say for sure if the Lesser Antilles will be affected as the pattern would indicate a track WNW away from the islands but never say never in the tropics so stay tuned as I know you always are. :) I can say the wave that gave birth to Georges in 1998 came out from Africa below 10N but it was a different steering pattern.
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#18 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:32 am

Another storm fails the poof test by the looks of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:43 am

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What is more clear is that most of the convection is south of 10N which is good in terms of getting ITCZ moisture feed.

You're right :) about that. Whereas, do you think that this feature should be a player for us in the Lesser Antilles? What are your best estimations Luis?


I only say for now is very early to say for sure if the Lesser Antilles will be affected as the pattern would indicate a track WNW away from the islands but never say never in the tropics so stay tuned as I know you always are. :) I can say the wave that gave birth to Georges in 1998 came out from Africa below 10N but it was a different steering pattern.

Thanks to you! Ok i go with you and evident bright and master zen analysis :) :P. Uncle Geroges damn, you're right hopefully the pattern should and i hope very different? We will see if the wnw track verifies along its treck in the MDR.
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#20 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:02 am

what is more clear is this will NOT develop
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