ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Riptide
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Re:

#61 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:01 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Chances continue to look good that this becomes Edouard over the coming days as shear remains light to moderate and the atmosphere remains reasonably moist.

Interesting similarities with 1996's Hurricane Edouard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)
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Last edited by Riptide on Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#62 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:11 pm

Riptide wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Chances continue to look good that this becomes Edouard over the coming days as shear remains light to moderate and the atmosphere remains reasonably moist.

Interesting similarities with 1996's Hurricane Edouard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)
Image


Very interesting comparison, as I was thinking this looks somewhat similar to Edouard when it came off.
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#63 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Looks like it may be jogging a bit NW this afternoon, looking at the floater. I can see NHC raising the 5-day development % to 70% or 80% for the next TWO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#64 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:38 pm

Looks like at least two vortex's with this invest.
The one up near 13N that the models predicted is headed for dry wind but looks like some energy might stay south near the ITCZ.
Can't say for sure there is any rotation further south yet.
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#65 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:05 pm

don't we need something called convection?
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Re:

#66 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:27 pm

Alyono wrote:don't we need something called convection?

It's still in its formative stages....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#67 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:06 pm

Looks like another "move along, nothing to see" system, the convection is pretty much collapsed as it heads into the drier air. I personally think the 48 hour will be lowered to 20% on the next outlook.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#68 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:17 pm

91L looks like it will dry up like its predecessors. Odds getting long for a CV system this season....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:31 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:15 pm

00z Best Track.

91L INVEST 140909 0000 11.0N 23.7W ATL 25 1009
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#71 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:18 pm

Puff of smoke :eek:?

Image
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#72 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:55 pm

It's looking increasingly likely that all the models were wrong on this and nothing will form, given the almost total lack of convection and the rapid decrease.
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#73 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:03 pm

Latest saved image - on life support right now. Puff of smoke is right! :eek:

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#74 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:13 pm

This may develop 8-10 days down the road as it is turning to the east of Bermuda
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#75 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:19 pm

What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?
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Re:

#76 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:35 pm

pgoss11 wrote:What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?


Plague is the word.

Image

I think it will pulse like 90L did for awhile though during dmax, wane during dmin. But it's going to need a lot of help.
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Re: Re:

#77 Postby MetroMike » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:What is wrong with the models?? Don't they see the dry air that's plaguing the MDR this year?


Plague is the word.

Image

I think it will pulse like 90L did for awhile though during dmax, wane during dmin. But it's going to need a lot of help.

Well that graphic is a little outdated there...I see it maintaining the envelope of moist air at least for a while.
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#78 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:29 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO 16N23W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N AND REMAINS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE GRADUALLY...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL
DEFINED 700 MB LOW INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 05N-17N
BETWEEN 17W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 20W-28W.
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Re: Re:

#79 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:30 pm

MetroMike wrote:Well that graphic is a little outdated there...I see it maintaining the envelope of moist air at least for a while.


It's the nature of reanalysis, it takes time to build data so it's not immediate usually a few days behind. It wasn't a reference to the immediate conditions of 91L but what the Atlantic has been doing for over 30+ days and continues to do so.
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#80 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:00 pm

Don't worry, I am sure 91L will eventually catch up to an ULL and it will bring it back to life after tracking across the dry MDR, lol.
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