ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#361 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:35 am

From NOAA2. Eye at 13:17Z (9:17am EDT):

Image

Image Credit: NOAA-AOC
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#362 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:54 am

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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#363 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:59 am

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the
latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft wind data. Even though the central pressure is rather low,
958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area
comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a
typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still
support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the
previous estimate.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the
subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic
Ocean. This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the
east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow. In
a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward
to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during
the post-tropical phase. The ECMWF has remained consistent on a
sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual
equatorward motion. Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during
the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest
side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between
the model consensus and the ECMWF.

Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over
waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours. Only a gradual
weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters
and moderate shear. All of the global models show a sharp increase
in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much
colder water. Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late
tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus. The
cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which
is in good agreement with the global models. Although Edouard is
expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast
period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any
redevelopment potential.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 36.4N 53.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 38.3N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 40.1N 40.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 39.7N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 39.4N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 34.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#364 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:12 am

Looks like they are chasing the Coyote drone around right now:

Image

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

"NOAA42: Is tasked to fly a Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Experiment with the COYOTE UAS. They took off around 8AM from Bermuda. Two HRD scientists will be on this flight."

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#365 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 17, 2014 11:53 am

From NOAA2. Eye at about 16:35Z (12:35pm EDT):

Image

Image Credit: NOAA-AOC
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#366 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:31 pm

Pictures from yesterday from the NOAA hurricane hunters of Edouard's eye:
https://www.facebook.com/NOAAHurricaneH ... 8736110081
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#367 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:31 pm

18z Best Track remains at 80kts.

AL, 06, 2014091718, , BEST, 0, 372N, 524W, 80, 956, HU
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#368 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:37 pm

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite
appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming
convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye. The initial intensity
is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the
higher satellite classifications. A combination of cooling waters
and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening
trend throughout the 120-hour period. Post-tropical transition is
indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard
moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected
to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of
the global models.

Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23. A gradual
turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward
speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered
by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.
Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days
while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.
Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track
guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,
apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from
the mid-level northerly flow. Consequently, the latest forecast is
shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably
won't be much of Edouard by that point.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 37.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 39.4N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 40.4N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 40.2N 39.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 40.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 20/1800Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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#369 Postby Steve820 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:35 pm

It was incredible that it became the first Atlantic major since Sandy in 2012, but it's now weakening and predicted to dissipate Friday. It's also kinda threatening the Azores but they probably won't feel alot of impacts. Bye Edouard! :D
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#370 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:38 pm

00z Best Track at 75kts.

AL, 06, 2014091800, , BEST, 0, 383N, 495W, 75, 958, HU
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#371 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:34 pm

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over
cool waters. Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in
the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few
hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls.
The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with
the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although the
hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the
expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear
should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days. The
NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Post-tropical
transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is
forecast to be over waters around 23 C.

The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong
mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial
motion estimated to be 060/26. A turn to the east and then
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow
between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low
to its northeast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast
during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 38.7N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#372 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track at 75kts.

AL, 06, 2014091800, , BEST, 0, 383N, 495W, 75, 958, HU

958mb pressure has to be a record low pressure for only a 85mph Cat.1 hurricane. :eek:
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#373 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:24 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track at 75kts.

AL, 06, 2014091800, , BEST, 0, 383N, 495W, 75, 958, HU

958mb pressure has to be a record low pressure for only a 85mph Cat.1 hurricane. :eek:


Sandy had pressures in the 940s while a Category 1 hurricane off the East Coast, before becoming extratropical.

-Andrew92
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#374 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:12 am

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
convection. The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT. Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
convective structure. However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
faster weakening trend later today. The hostile conditions should
cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus.

The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
an initial motion of 065/24 kt. Edouard is moving around the
northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
around this feature during the next 3 days. Most of the track
models are in good agreement on this scenario. The two main
outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
northeastward ahead of a cold front. The updated NHC track forecast
is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 39.6N 45.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#375 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:36 am

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened
up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat
tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around
1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady
weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose
its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by
that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard
dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the
official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of
the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard
is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward
around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward
by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and
UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion,
respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory.

The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the
above-mentioned ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#376 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:26 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track at 75kts.

AL, 06, 2014091800, , BEST, 0, 383N, 495W, 75, 958, HU

958mb pressure has to be a record low pressure for only a 85mph Cat.1 hurricane. :eek:


Sandy had pressures in the 940s while a Category 1 hurricane off the East Coast, before becoming extratropical.

-Andrew92


940 was the lowest Sandy had while a Cat 1. Several other storms like Ike (944 with 85 kt), Irene (950 with 70 kt), Earl (955 with 70 kt) and Igor (953 with 65 kt; 939 with 85 kt) all had low pressures at fairly modest intensities as well.
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Hurricane - Discussion

#377 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:958mb pressure has to be a record low pressure for only a 85mph Cat.1 hurricane. :eek:


Sandy had pressures in the 940s while a Category 1 hurricane off the East Coast, before becoming extratropical.

-Andrew92


940 was the lowest Sandy had while a Cat 1. Several other storms like Ike (944 with 85 kt), Irene (950 with 70 kt), Earl (955 with 70 kt) and Igor (953 with 65 kt; 939 with 85 kt) all had low pressures at fairly modest intensities as well.


Many weak hurricanes have low pressures due to baroclinic interaction.
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#378 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:10 pm

Edouard looks like it might decouple soon.
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#379 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.9N 41.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery
indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have
started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with
the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east
of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based
mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the
northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located
along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on
the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a
turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new
NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track,
and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter
increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The
combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the
rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to
show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts
with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory
and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 39.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: EDOUARD - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#380 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014

Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours.
Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on
the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about
30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment
and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated
that Edouard has not weakened significantly. Maximum reliable winds
seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde
wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity.
Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this
advisory. The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions,
therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast
to become post-tropical in about 24 hours. The global models show
the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours,
and this is reflected in the official forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15
kt on the north side of a subtropical high. A continued eastward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next
day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone
becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep
layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The NHC track
forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and
lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass
and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 39.9N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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