ATL: EDOUARD - Models

[Hammy]

Is it possible that the Euro is showing it stronger suddenly because it has a better handle on it now that there is something relatively organized now?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS noticeably weaker through 3 days of the run that it is out to so far...

[Alyono]

still over developing this

do the models not see the SAL?

[Alyono]

MASSIVE east coast troughing. If we do get something forming, it likely does not make 60W

[Alyono]

GFS continues to indicate Igor part 2 for Canada

[blp]

00z models

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Ensembles, more disagreement than the 12Z on how/when it recurves though I doubt anything will get much further west than 60W with that huge EC trough the GFS is showing in the long-range

18Z (latest):


12Z (previous):

[Alyono]

Canadian model dropped this

That said, perhaps it is no longer the Canadian model that is the one to look at merely to determine whether genesis is possible. Model Uccellini is the one that now develops 20 of the next 2 storms

[Hammy]

Euro develops it around day five, is this fairly realistic by now considering it's north of 20 by that point?

[Blown Away]

12z...


12z...

[Hammy]

In my opinion, the models have utterly failed with this, and it shows that when it comes to it, the Euro is just as horrible as the GFS prior to there actually being a developed system, because the last run showed a Cat 3 and the latest run does not even develop it. And the lack of model consistency tells me that the chances of this actually becoming anything are very likely less than 50/50.

[gatorcane]

In my opinion, the models have utterly failed with this, and it shows that when it comes to it, the Euro is just as horrible as the GFS prior to there actually being a developed system, because the last run showed a Cat 3 and the latest run does not even develop it. And the lack of model consistency tells me that the chances of this actually becoming anything are very likely less than 50/50.

Agreed this wave is making our sophisticated models look very pathetic if you ask me. Another thing that is interesting when I look at this invest tonight is that it seems to have elongated into a trough and there is a pretty good voriticity on the SW side with increasing convection and even some spin noted when I look at the floater. Who knows, maybe the SW end of this trough heads west and develops as there is less SAL there? If so the models have failed even more.

[StormTracker]

Sounds about right to me, hence why the models seemed to be so confused(AGAIN)!!!

[Hurricaneman]

In my opinion, the models have utterly failed with this, and it shows that when it comes to it, the Euro is just as horrible as the GFS prior to there actually being a developed system, because the last run showed a Cat 3 and the latest run does not even develop it. And the lack of model consistency tells me that the chances of this actually becoming anything are very likely less than 50/50.

Agreed this wave is making our sophisticated models look very pathetic if you ask me. Another thing that is interesting when I look at this invest tonight is that it seems to have elongated into a trough and there is a pretty good voriticity on the SW side with increasing convection and even some spin noted when I look at the floater. Who knows, maybe the SW end of this trough heads west and develops as there is less SAL there? If so the models have failed even more.

Thats my worry here is that if it forms farther SW then we might have to watch it in the Lesser Antilles as there might be a greater chance of not getting picked up by the weakness in time but as of now no model predicts that so either the models are correct and this goes out to sea or this ends up in the model embarrassment area

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[Hammy]

Euro is out to 72 hours and continues to weaken Edouard, so no change in the model thinking so far.
edit: still dissipates on day 6.

[tolakram]

All about the timing. If it was just a little slower the upper level winds would be ventilating the storm, which I think is what the GFS assumes and the solution the euro had days ago when it showed a hurricane.

[tolakram]

And now the 12Z euro likes the hurricane idea again.

[Hammy]

Euro now goes to Cat 3 in 120 hours, how realistic is this possibility?

[Hammy]

Euro showing 112kts at 850mb in 48 hours (which I assume translates to 100kts at surface) yet GFS which tends to overdevelop everything only takes it to 70kts as the maximum