ATL: EDOUARD - Models

[Hammy]

Keep in mind that, overall, something forming well east out in the MDR in Sep. only has ~20% chance of hitting the CONUS. The current chance is a good bit lower than the already rather low climo of 20%.

Isn't the 15th pretty much the averaged point anyway where storms that form that far east generally go out to sea?

[Alyono]

Keep in mind that, overall, something forming well east out in the MDR in Sep. only has ~20% chance of hitting the CONUS. The current chance is a good bit lower than the already rather low climo of 20%.

Isn't the 15th pretty much the averaged point anyway where storms that form that far east generally go out to sea?

Georges formed on Sept 15 and it did make it the entire way across

I have seen storms make it across late. They typically remain around 10N until 45 or 50W

[LarryWx]

Keep in mind that, overall, something forming well east out in the MDR in Sep. only has ~20% chance of hitting the CONUS. The current chance is a good bit lower than the already rather low climo of 20%.

Isn't the 15th pretty much the averaged point anyway where storms that form that far east generally go out to sea?

I calculated that ~1 in 7 of the 9/15 or later CV formations later hit the CONUS. For Sep as a whole, I calculated it to be ~1 in 5. So, for 9/1-14 formations, alone, I'm guessing it might actually be closer to ~1 in 4 hitting the CONUS. OTOH, for El Nino/oncoming El Nino seasons, alone, the chance of a 9/1-14 formation hitting is probably no higher than ~1 in 5 and may even be more like only 1 in 6.

Exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for the 47 1851-2013 CV storms* that later hit the CONUS including Earl of 2010 and Emily of 2005:

7/5, 7/11, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/15, 8/15, 8/16, 8/16, 8/17, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21,8/23, 8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/1, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21, 9/25

*My def. of CV storm: tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N

So, 163 years of history clearly show a sharp peak on 9/10 for storms that form E of 50W and later hit the CONUS, but then frequency drops sharply. Regarding 9/15+ CV formations that later hit the CONUS (~1 in 7 of these formations hit):
1) Lili of 2002 formed on 9/21 and did what I think 91-L would have to do to threaten the CONUS, go through the Caribbean. That was during El Nino.
2) As mentioned by Alyono, Georges of 1998 formed on 9/15 and later came all of the way across to the Gulf coast.
3) Gloria of 1985 formed on 9/16 and hit from NC to the NE US.
4) Inez of 1966 formed on 9/21 and later hit far S FL/Keys.
5) In 1893, a storm formed on 9/25 and it came all of the way across to slam the Carolinas on 10/13!

[YoshiMike]

what is CONUS

[StormingB81]

what is CONUS

Continental United States

[YoshiMike]

Thank you, Very much

[SFLcane]

Up and out per emsembles this evening..

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is quite a bit farther south of the 18z132hr position at 126hrs

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[Alyono]

the 0Z GFS appears EAST of the 18Z

too much troughing to get this close to land

[Blown Away]

06z...


06z...

[tolakram]

GFS and Euro hanging on to 91L.

6Z GFS


0Z Euro

[tolakram]

UKMet has it as well, further north.



sources for above images:

GFS & Euro: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

UKMet: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[gatorcane]

GEM now develops this.

[TheStormExpert]

GEM now develops this.

Hallelujah! There may still be hope.

[Blown Away]

12z...


12z...

[Riptide]

12z Euro coming in more organized, all systems go. Probably still a bit conservative.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... sl_072.gif

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 12z ECMWF really likes Invest 91L; it's down to 977 millibars in 180 hours.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 192 hours, a big flip from the last run.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS continues slow and steady development through 180 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro and GFS like this to eventually become what looks like a significant hurricane out in the middle of nowhere impacting nobody. Could be a big ACE pumper!