WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#121 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:05 pm

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WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM SOUTHWEST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 15W IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF HAINAN ISLAND AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA, LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN IN DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS AS THE
ORGANIZATION OF TY 15W HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TY 15W CONTINUES TO TRACK
QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A QUICK TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. AS TY 15W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND, INFLUENCED BY LAND INTERACTION, WILL BEGIN.
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL LEAD TO A
RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE LLCC BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#122 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:19 pm

Image

eye wrapping up...
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#123 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:02 pm

Dianbai District in Guangdong just recorded a wind gust of 170kph as Kalmaegi makes landfall...:eek:

does anybody have any pressure or sustained wind reports from the region?
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#124 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:58 am

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15W KALMAEGI 140916 0600 20.5N 110.2E WPAC 70 970

Battering Zhanjiang, home to 7 million !
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#125 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:06 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#126 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:35 am

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
TY 15W HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY AS THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAKES LANDFALL OVER LEIZHOU
PENINSULA IN SOUTHERN CHINA. A 160623Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE
EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE MSI AND AFOREMENTEIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TY 15W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN GULF OF TONKIN. TY 15 WILL MAKE
FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND LEAD
TO A RAPID DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#127 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:50 am

Image

Nearing it's 3rd landfall. Big city Hanoi likely to get TS force winds...
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#128 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:17 am

Moving right over the same areas that were hammered by Rammasun... I wish we had more reports from China and Vietnam.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

#129 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:16 am

Image

Remnants of Kalmaegi over Myanmar...Still impressive looking...
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