WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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#41 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:32 am

hmm CDO alert? looks like it has finally built a decent deep central convection... Definitely not a TD now, IMO.. If this keeps up, maybe JMA will give us Kalmaegi later tonight...
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#42 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:44 am

I spoke too soon, I said later tonight but right now we already have tropical storm Kalmaegi..
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 15W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:48 am

Image
Image

Looks like rapid intensification and 35 knots seems low at this point...Can't wait for the discussion...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 15W

#44 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:17 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND 120523Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOVEMENT. TS 15W CONTINUES
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD
OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. IN ADDITION TO CONDUCIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS
15W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36. TS
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN LUZON AFTER TAU
48, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND
TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#45 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:22 am

Impressive! I just hope this does not cause destruction in Luzon.
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#46 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:12 am

TS 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 12 September 2014

<Analyses at 12/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40'(13.7°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 12/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 13/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
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#47 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:13 am

BTW, the title format is WPAC: (storm name) - (intensity category TD, TS, TY)

Kalmaegi looks very well organized and can't believe that superb outflow and banding, maybe we will see a typhoon tomorrow. Based on satellite appearance, Kalmaegi looks like a 50 knot storm.
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#48 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:34 am

JT forecast defies all meteorological knowledge. I mean, do they even proof read their forecasts?

Weakening by only 5 kts over Luzon? Really?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#49 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:39 am

at last a pro met noticed this little storm in this part of the world :lol: I know many of you are focused on the Western hemisphere..

Actually this storm is beneficial to the dams in Northern Luzon as water level falls below normal.
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Re:

#50 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:56 am

Alyono wrote:JT forecast defies all meteorological knowledge. I mean, do they even proof read their forecasts?

Weakening by only 5 kts over Luzon? Really?


What's even crazier is that GFS is showing only a 2 mb weakening after this merges over the SCS... :lol: Well however is it still too far out and there is low confidence in the extended taus due to it's track speed...

HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND
TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#51 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:57 am

somethingfunny wrote:No classification from JMA yet. Do the Japanese post (if not translate) forecast discussions of any kind that we could see?


I guess your talking about something like NHC, CPHC, and JTWC's discussion and prognostic reasoning?

No...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#52 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:08 am

Image

High OHC till landfall...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#53 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 7:16 am

3.0 (45 knots) from PGTW and KNES, ADT at 3.7 (59 knots)

I could see JTWC increasing to at least 45 knots maybe 50 knots using an average of the numbers...
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#54 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:35 am

JTWC upped this to 45kts, pressure down.

15W KALMAEGI 140912 1200 13.8N 129.7E WPAC 45 989

Well, IDK why but the JMA has this intensifying a day after landfall.

TS 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 12 September 2014

<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40'(13.7°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#55 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:42 am

40 knots and expecting a category1 landfall.


WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 121223Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF A 121223Z ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE
STORM MOTION. TS 15W CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION.
B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
A PERIOD OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION
TO CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TS 15W TO INTENSIFY, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY
TAU 24. TS KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN LUZON
AROUND TAU 48, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
THE TERRAIN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. AFTER TAU 96, TS KALMAEGI IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#56 Postby ^tamago^ » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:11 am

Image
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Re:

#57 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:52 am

Alyono wrote:JT forecast defies all meteorological knowledge. I mean, do they even proof read their forecasts?

Weakening by only 5 kts over Luzon? Really?


:lol: You love JTWC don't ya?

Alternately JMA has no weakening despite going through Luzon...That's something to think about since they don't have any forecast discussions...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#58 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:11 pm

Image

Wrapping up nicely...
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#59 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:25 pm

Not sure what JMA is doing either

This should go south of the models. There is a strong ridge to the NW of the system

Cannot rule out tropical storm force winds in Manila
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (15W)

#60 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:42 pm

Image

Image

Image

Tightly clustered...
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