WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#81 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:12 am

2014SEP13 080100 3.9 985.5 63.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -82.91 -82.55 UNIFRM N/A -0.0 14.58 -127.69 FCST MTSAT2 26.3
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#82 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:31 am

It's attempting to carve an eye.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#83 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:40 am

Image

looks like a typhoon now...

dexterlabio wrote:It's attempting to carve an eye.



Probrably is...like Odile, it's center is right under the middle of CDO but Kalmaegi is far more organized with Dark grey -80 tops completely encompassing the CDO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#84 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:51 am

Shear of 20 knots likely keeping Kalmaegi from not getting too strong but won't be strong enough to stop Kalmaegi from intensifying. Who knows what we should have if shear was low...
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#85 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:58 am

ADT has been stuck at 3.5 for hours now. It's probably because it hasn't pinpoint where the actual center is...

Image


The center, I say, is at the upper center of the dark grey region.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#86 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:30 am

You'll be happy with the JMA now euro because they already upgraded Kalmaegi to a typhoon.. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#87 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:34 am

dexterlabio wrote:You'll be happy with the JMA now euro because they already upgraded Kalmaegi to a typhoon.. :lol:


That's nice...Any reasoning?

I see this getting upgraded later on today though into our 7th typhoon...
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:48 am

TY 1415 (KALMAEGI)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 13 September 2014

<Analyses at 13/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°35'(14.6°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 13/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 14/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°50'(19.8°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:07 am

Image

943 mb? :double:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#90 Postby ManilaTC » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:17 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

looks like a typhoon now...

dexterlabio wrote:It's attempting to carve an eye.



Probrably is...like Odile, it's center is right under the middle of CDO but Kalmaegi is far more organized with Dark grey -80 tops completely encompassing the CDO


Hi euro, do you have a link for that image of yours?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kalmaegi

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:24 am

ManilaTC wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Image

looks like a typhoon now...

dexterlabio wrote:It's attempting to carve an eye.



Probrably is...like Odile, it's center is right under the middle of CDO but Kalmaegi is far more organized with Dark grey -80 tops completely encompassing the CDO


Hi euro, do you have a link for that image of yours?


CIMSS main page, Satcon and click any storm you want...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:42 am

Finally getting it's first 4.0, old KNES is at 3.5 while ADT is stuck at 3.9...

TPPN10 PGTW 131220

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI)

B. 13/1132Z

C. 15.1N

D. 126.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.0 WRAP + WHITE ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 4.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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#93 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:51 am

^Because of that, the JTWC has already upgraded Kalmaegi to a typhoon.

15W KALMAEGI 140913 1200 15.1N 126.6E WPAC 65 974
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Re:

#94 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:52 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:^Because of that, the JTWC has already upgraded Kalmaegi to a typhoon.

15W KALMAEGI 140913 1200 15.1N 126.6E WPAC 65 974


prognostics is going to be a very interesting one to read...
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#95 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:57 am

Image

JTWC BT- Black 15.1N 126.6E
JMA- Green 14.6 126.3E
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#96 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:00 am

Interesting that JTWC and JMA have different location fixes on Kalmaegi. Either one of them gets it wrong. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#97 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:11 am

dexterlabio wrote:Interesting that JTWC and JMA have different location fixes on Kalmaegi. Either one of them gets it wrong. :lol:


Image

Looks like it's right in between both agencies position but more in JTWC's favor...
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:28 am

Image

Subic

Image

Tagaytay
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#99 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:36 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: Typhoon Kalmaegi

#100 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:29 am

Image

Latest warning from JTWC has TS winds for much of Luzon in pink, Manila isn't out of the cone yet...

Image

Closer look at the projected landfall east of Palanan shows a very sparesly populated area...

Image

The Sierra Madre Mountains of eastern Luzon can act like a shield but can also produce torrential flooding which can kill alot of people...
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