EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

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EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:10 am


94E INVEST 140908 0600 11.5N 100.0W EPAC 20 1009

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next several
days, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression
later this week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:22 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 38 46 52 54 59 63 69 71
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 38 46 52 54 59 63 69 71
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 33 38 42 44 45 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 7 7 6 12 17 17 14 14 12 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 2 2 3 1 2
SHEAR DIR 103 102 134 125 118 78 79 84 86 69 45 45 56
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 162 163 163 160 156 152 148 147 143 139
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 82 82 82 83 81 82 79 80 77 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 11 13 18 20
850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 0 -2 -15 -14 -12 -6 18 39 59 82 89
200 MB DIV 69 54 55 69 48 68 60 72 85 64 94 92 127
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -7
LAND (KM) 544 526 510 491 472 430 380 362 363 386 436 523 626
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.0
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.3 103.6 104.7 105.7 106.5 107.2 107.9 108.8 109.7
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 4 3 4 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 22 26 33 40 47 65 68 56 39 28 23 17 15
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:27 am

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Weaker but closer to MX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:44 am

12z Best Track:

94E INVEST 140908 1200 12.0N 100.0W EPAC 20 1009
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:48 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 27 36 43 48 54 59 66 71 71
V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 23 27 36 43 48 54 59 66 71 71
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 36 39 41 43 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 10 14 17 11 13 10 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 1 -1 3 3 0 3 0
SHEAR DIR 113 149 124 121 103 80 81 86 74 51 35 56 108
SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 162 164 164 163 160 157 154 152 149 144 136
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.3 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 9 7 9 8 9 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 82 84 83 83 80 80 79 79 76 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 12 16 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 0 -9 -12 -8 -9 3 29 54 70 98 114
200 MB DIV 53 58 70 39 49 64 49 90 64 85 73 85 109
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 -3 -3 -7 0
LAND (KM) 492 473 454 435 416 360 324 304 300 329 394 483 611
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.9 15.8 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.2 101.8 102.4 103.8 104.9 105.7 106.4 107.1 108.0 109.1 110.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 3 4 5 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 24 30 39 44 50 68 59 45 36 28 21 17 15
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#6 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:19 am

The environment for Invest 94E is very conducive, with shear near or below 10 knots for most the period, sea surface temperatures of 27-30C, and mid-level RH values above 70%. The 12z GFS shows this becoming a 963mb major hurricane as it passes just offshore the southwestern Mexico coastline.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:26 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 12:27 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico has become better defined today. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next
few days while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:32 pm

18z Best Track:


94E INVEST 140908 1800 12.0N 99.2W EPAC 25 1009
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#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:19 pm

Mad season with insane activity. :eek:
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#11 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:46 pm

Very strong CCKW is coming, this system is ripe potential to be something very large, and intense.
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#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:02 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/08/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 60 68 79 88 94 96 92
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 60 68 79 88 94 96 92
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 39 44 51 57 63 69 75 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 8 14 13 16 17 14 10 6 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -1 1 1 5 0 3 0 3 5
SHEAR DIR 125 104 107 95 93 66 65 48 49 34 28 154 125
SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 163 164 163 161 160 158 160 162 162 163
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 83 81 84 83 82 81 81 78 79 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 14 15 20 25 27 29 29
850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 0 -2 0 2 5 19 17 39 42 73 96
200 MB DIV 60 72 42 71 67 67 92 120 119 114 106 70 79
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -3 0 0 0 -6 -6 -2
LAND (KM) 462 435 414 405 396 379 374 384 409 395 322 226 161
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.3 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.6 15.3 16.6 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.8 100.3 100.9 101.5 102.7 103.5 103.9 104.0 103.9 103.9 104.5 105.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 0 2 5 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 20 24 31 39 43 56 67 69 69 69 65 49 36
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:34 pm

Up to 60%-80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is gradually becoming better organized a
few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to support additional development, and the
low is likely to become a tropical depression in the next couple of
days while it moves slowly northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:51 pm

94E is going to pass over area of very warm SSTs just offshore Mexico with OHC higher than any storms have encountered in this season so far.
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#15 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:28 pm

Visible

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:43 pm

00z Best Track.

94E INVEST 140909 0000 12.3N 98.9W EPAC 25 1007
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#17 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:22 pm

The environment really doesn't get any more favorable. The system is expected to track over sea surface temperatures near 30C for the next 5 days, with mid-level RH values near 80% and wind shear below 10 knots. It will be crossing over the highest ocean heat content in the basin, and a very strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave will be passing overhead.

The only potential inhibitor I see is land interaction--if it gets too close to Mexico, the storm's circulation will pull dry air off the mainland and induce weakening or a steady state phase.

I'm shocked that the SHIPS only brings this to 72kt; even the LGEM's projection of 93kt is probably too low.
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#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:38 pm

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Closer to the coast and once again brings this to sub-970 mbar.
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:38 pm

This could be Cat 5.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 57 64 68 70 72 72 71
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 49 57 64 68 70 72 72 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 45 53 61 69 75 82 88 93
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 7 8 12 13 11 10 4 8 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 0 0 4 0 6 1 0 5 8
SHEAR DIR 75 74 76 56 55 55 40 49 22 3 26 102 105
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 160 162 164 163 161 160 159 161 161 160 160
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.7 -52.6 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -50.9 -49.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 10
700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 82 82 83 82 82 82 78 74 79 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 3 3 2 -2 12 11 18 40 45 74 106
200 MB DIV 69 59 76 62 68 69 85 85 119 117 58 53 60
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 1 0 0 -7 -4 2
LAND (KM) 422 398 381 369 357 355 380 387 379 342 276 221 195
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.9 17.2 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.5 100.0 100.6 101.3 102.4 103.2 103.6 103.7 103.9 104.2 105.2 106.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 1 3 6 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 19 23 30 38 40 50 64 68 68 67 57 44 28
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Re:

#20 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:This could be Cat 5.


It's already showing signs of good ouflow channel to it's south/southwest. I've noticed these with very intense cyclones (i.e. Marie earlier this season). It's probably going to have a tail like that. I wouldn't be surprised if it did try for it.
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