EPAC: ODILE - Remnants
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
Isn't shear supposed to decrease by now？Still no signs of that happening
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hurricanes1234
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I noticed that shear is always a challenge when it comes to forecasting it.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I noticed that shear is always a challenge when it comes to forecasting it.
It's very fickle in all basins.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Odile's intensity forecast is definitely trick. Although shear was not expected to be an issue initially, I can't say it's a surprise--I saw that upper-level low over the Gulf working westward towards the storm the other day, but Odile was forecast to have a well-developed anticyclone by this point.
That said, the upper-level low is forecast to weaken as it moves over Mexico, leaving the question of how strong Odile can become between tomorrow and Sunday. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and mid-level moisture is abundant, so assuming upper-level winds do indeed slacken, rapid intensification remains a distinct possibility.
This probably isn't going to become the Category 4 I first thought it would, however.
That said, the upper-level low is forecast to weaken as it moves over Mexico, leaving the question of how strong Odile can become between tomorrow and Sunday. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and mid-level moisture is abundant, so assuming upper-level winds do indeed slacken, rapid intensification remains a distinct possibility.
This probably isn't going to become the Category 4 I first thought it would, however.
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Yellow Evan
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120251
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Strong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's
deep convection to the southwest of its center. The cyclone
actually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today,
and Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB.
For now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on
an average of the CI numbers. The northeasterly shear over Odile
is being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low
located over eastern Mexico. This feature is forecast to move
westward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally
decrease in about 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is still forecast
during that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of
intensification after 24 hours. The current shear has decreased
the amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening,
and the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak
intensities in a few days. The updated NHC forecast has been
adjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the
SHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance.
Odile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the
estimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt. The sheared nature
of the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but
overall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the
next 24 hours. After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge
over Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate
northwestward through day 5. The track models have changed little
on this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update
of the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTPZ45 KNHC 120251
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014
Strong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's
deep convection to the southwest of its center. The cyclone
actually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today,
and Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB.
For now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on
an average of the CI numbers. The northeasterly shear over Odile
is being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low
located over eastern Mexico. This feature is forecast to move
westward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally
decrease in about 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is still forecast
during that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of
intensification after 24 hours. The current shear has decreased
the amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening,
and the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak
intensities in a few days. The updated NHC forecast has been
adjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the
SHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance.
Odile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the
estimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt. The sheared nature
of the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but
overall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the
next 24 hours. After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge
over Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate
northwestward through day 5. The track models have changed little
on this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update
of the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Yellow Evan
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Kingarabian
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:It's interesting to note how much models have trending W. Normally, when EPAC storms off W MX intensify, they shift east.
Yeah, especially the Euro.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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xtyphooncyclonex
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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120839
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 150SE 180SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.8W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 180SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
$$
WTPZ25 KNHC 120839
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 150SE 180SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.8W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 180SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
$$
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
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- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Very, very cold and impressive cloudtops!
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120840
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of
Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the
cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial
intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear
gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so,
which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours
and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance
continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again
been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane
in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72
hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler
waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is
above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at
36 hours and beyond.
Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone
remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of
the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to
west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall,
the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario,
but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is
close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the
left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from
the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in
the southern semicircle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
WTPZ45 KNHC 120840
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of
Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the
cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial
intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear
gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so,
which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours
and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance
continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again
been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane
in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72
hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler
waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is
above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at
36 hours and beyond.
Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone
remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of
the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to
west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall,
the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario,
but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is
close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the
left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from
the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in
the southern semicircle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 120840
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
...ODILE DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
WTPZ35 KNHC 120840
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
...ODILE DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
...ODILE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
...ODILE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. ODILE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
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- Location: central florida
Take a look at this this morning, its looking like an intensifying system
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2014 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:30:24 N Lon : 104:59:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.7mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.7
Center Temp : -78.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.8 degrees
RI (maybe EI?) should start tonight IMO.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2014 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 15:30:24 N Lon : 104:59:26 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.7mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.7
Center Temp : -78.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb
Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.8 degrees
RI (maybe EI?) should start tonight IMO.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
woah!
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Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139044
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
A recent SSMIS microwave overpass and Dvorak infrared BD-curve
enhancement imagery show that deep convection, with associated -80C
degree cloud tops, continues to form over the surface center,
indicative of the subsiding northeasterly shear. A blend of the
subjective intensity estimates yields an increased initial intensity
of 55 kt. It's worth noting that the SHIPS model indicates an
initial vertical shear of 17 kt, while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis
only shows only about 5-10 kt of shear. Additionally, GOES-13
satellite-derived 100-350 mb winds indicate a more diffluent
pattern over the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an
update with only a slight increase adjustment through 48 hours to
reflect the increasingly more favorable upper-level wind
environment.
Odile continues to drift westward this morning within weak mid-level
steering flow. Large-scale models continue to be in excellent
agreement with a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and
the Baja California peninsula beyond the 24 hour period. Odile is
expected to gradually accelerate northwestward through the remaining
portion of the forecast in response to this change in the synoptic
steering pattern. The NHC official forecast is very close to the
previous advisory and is based on a blend of the TVCE multi-model
consensus with emphasis on the ECMWF global model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.6N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.5N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.6N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.8N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014
A recent SSMIS microwave overpass and Dvorak infrared BD-curve
enhancement imagery show that deep convection, with associated -80C
degree cloud tops, continues to form over the surface center,
indicative of the subsiding northeasterly shear. A blend of the
subjective intensity estimates yields an increased initial intensity
of 55 kt. It's worth noting that the SHIPS model indicates an
initial vertical shear of 17 kt, while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis
only shows only about 5-10 kt of shear. Additionally, GOES-13
satellite-derived 100-350 mb winds indicate a more diffluent
pattern over the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an
update with only a slight increase adjustment through 48 hours to
reflect the increasingly more favorable upper-level wind
environment.
Odile continues to drift westward this morning within weak mid-level
steering flow. Large-scale models continue to be in excellent
agreement with a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and
the Baja California peninsula beyond the 24 hour period. Odile is
expected to gradually accelerate northwestward through the remaining
portion of the forecast in response to this change in the synoptic
steering pattern. The NHC official forecast is very close to the
previous advisory and is based on a blend of the TVCE multi-model
consensus with emphasis on the ECMWF global model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.6N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.9N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.5N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.6N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.8N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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