EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

959mbar this run.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

At this rate, I would not be surprised if we see a monster! Perfect environment if you don't count proximity to landmass(es). A good analog of future-Odile is Category 5 Major Hurricane Kenna of 2002.

[euro6208]

00Z slightly stronger down by 1 mb to 958 mb...

Looks like one of those epac systems that rapidly intensifies and peaks for only 6 hours followed by rapid weakening as shown by latest run...

[euro6208]

06Z even weaker...967 mb...

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091138
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico has changed little in organization overnight.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression
in the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward just
off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06Z even weaker...967 mb...

Don't be pessimistic, as storms this year usually ended up much more powerful than expected.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 45 54 68 79 89 88 90 85
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 45 54 68 79 89 88 90 85
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 46 51 58 63 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 8 9 8 12 9 6 2 9 15 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 2 3 5 7 6 6 5 4 1 1
SHEAR DIR 103 85 78 77 79 59 59 32 44 67 131 116 106
SST (C) 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 164 165 165 163 161 160 160 160 160 160 159
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 87 85 83 84 85 81 80 78 79 75 76 75 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 14 15 20 23 27 25 27 25
850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 1 2 4 9 36 39 65 78 102 107 104
200 MB DIV 53 58 41 49 44 77 105 102 98 110 88 74 92
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -5 -8 -11 -9 -6
LAND (KM) 332 299 268 249 230 212 210 211 200 161 141 157 195
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 3 2 1 2 4 6 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 24 31 36 35 33 36 39 40 40 41 44 41 29

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure has continued to become better defined a
couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the low
is likely to become a tropical depression in a day or two while it
moves slowly northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

94E INVEST 140909 1800 13.7N 100.9W EPAC 30 1007

[cycloneye]

Low pressure centered a couple hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form later tonight or on Wednesday
while the low moves slowly northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Ntxw]

Satellite loop

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/09/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 44 54 71 84 95 94 92 83 84
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 44 54 71 84 95 94 92 83 84
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 54 61 69 77 81 83
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 13 11 18 10 4 8 15 11 15 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 5 5 5 3 6 1 0 6 3 2
SHEAR DIR 86 78 77 73 63 48 49 6 88 91 118 133 92
SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 161 161 161 161 161 161 162 161 155
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9
700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 84 81 81 77 78 76 76 75 75 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 15 21 26 30 29 27 21 25
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -2 -1 2 20 23 41 42 87 120 114 116
200 MB DIV 45 46 56 72 84 104 99 106 122 84 87 95 78
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -13 -7 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 360 350 340 343 349 334 306 287 258 205 129 192 195
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 2 2 1 2 4 8 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 36 37 46 54 61 60 59 56 52 44 35 50 35

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks good enough for classification IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 94, 2014090918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1009W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 100, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 94, 2014091000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1018W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Ptarmigan]

I could see this one rapidly intensify.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like no upgrade.

[hurricanes1234]

No advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 09/10/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 78 91 99 99 89 85 80
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 78 91 99 99 89 85 80
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 53 61 70 80 89 92 90
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 13 15 14 11 7 10 8 17 13 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 4 5 1 1 -1 0 4 5 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 85 74 71 68 56 52 19 78 79 95 129 131 160
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.1 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 160 159 160 161 161 161 161 163 158 151
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.8 -51.4 -52.2 -50.7 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 7 10 7 10 9 11 8 8
700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 82 82 82 80 78 77 75 75 72 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 14 17 23 27 30 28 21 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 4 10 18 28 41 54 80 110 144 103 73
200 MB DIV 42 53 71 77 113 101 121 95 105 104 83 45 67
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -9 -12 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 369 368 371 375 380 358 315 285 241 184 138 235 133
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 2 5 11 14 15 16
HEAT CONTENT 39 47 59 62 64 64 59 56 49 43 29 52 8

[Yellow Evan]

18z HWRF brings this fairy close to the coast as a hurricane.

[supercane4867]

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure centered about 250 miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. If current trends continue, advisories will likely
be initiated on a tropical depression overnight tonight while the
system moves slowly northwestward just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.