EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased in association with the area of low
pressure located southwest of Acapulco, and the system is now
designated a tropical depression. The convective pattern consists of
a large area of tops colder than -80C west of the center and some
curved bands forming to the north. The initial intensity of 30 kt is
based on data from a pair of ASCAT passes between 0300 and 0500 UTC.
The SHIPS model shows moderate easterly to northeasterly shear over
the cyclone, consistent with the location of the low-level center on
the eastern edge of the convective canopy as shown by the ASCAT
data.

The shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, which
should result in gradual strengthening as the cyclone is situated
over very warm SSTs around 30C. By 48 hours, the shear is expected
to decrease, allowing the cyclone to take better advantage of the
favorable oceanic conditions and intensify more quickly. There is
considerable spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS model is
the most aggressive, showing the system reaching 90 kt by 72 hours.
The HWRF shows quick strengthening in the short term, but then
weakens the cyclone due to land interaction. The GFDL model also
shows land interaction and a weaker solution. Given that the NHC
track keeps the center offshore, the official intensity forecast
will be above the intensity consensus but below the SHIPS model,
showing the cyclone reaching 70 kt in 72 hours and peaking at 80 kt
at days 4 and 5.

The initial motion is a north-northwestward drift, as the depression
is situated in a region of weak steering south of a mid-level ridge.
The western part of the ridge will gradually erode over the next 48
to 72 hours, which should allow the deepening cyclone to begin
moving slowly northwestward to north-northwestward. Later in the
period, the cyclone should accelerate northwestward as the ridge
strengthens to the east. While overall the guidance is in general
agreement on this scenario, there are significant detail differences
that will determine how close the system comes to the coast of
southwestern Mexico in 72 to 96 hours. The ECMWF shows more
interaction with an upper-low retrograding westward across Mexico
and pulls the cyclone farther to the east and closer to the coast.
On the other hand, the GFS has a track farther offshore showing
less influence from the upper-level low and more interaction with
the disturbance currently situated about 1,000 miles west-southwest
of the depression. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models through the period and is a little slower than and
left of the TVCE consensus at days 4 and 5. Given the present weak
steering currents and and spread of the model guidance, confidence
in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual.

A tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That was fast, however it is not even surprising. The NHC's forecast may be conservative again, and that this storm would go bonkers!

[Cyclenall]

TD15-E's track forecast shows the possibility of a strong hurricane entering the narrow channel between landmasses and at an alright angle. If the angle was just a bit different, it would go far up and that is the only way of beating the furthest north major Epac hurricane record plus getting a formidable tropical cyclone to the SW USA. It would have to be small and fast but I always wondered if all the stars aligned would it be possible to have a hurricane all the way to the top which has the US boarder very close making a hurricane impact on Arizona or California theoretically possible.

[WeatherGuesser]

Come inside, the show's about to start
guaranteed to blow your head apart
Rest assured you'll get your money's worth
The greatest show in Heaven, Hell or Earth.
You've got to see the show, it's a dynamo.

- Greg Lake.

[Yellow Evan]

Introducing Tropical Storm Odile.

EP, 15, 2014091012, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1028W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1009, 175, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M,

[dexterlabio]

Will Odile make it to SoCal? I'm thinking yes if she squeezes her way to that narrow body of water in western Mexico (what's the name of that bay?).

This year's EPAC hurricane season is shaping up to be one of those years I wouldn't forget. This year we had a crossover hurricane from this basin, the strongest cyclone to hit Hawaii in 20 years, and the first Category 5 since Rick. Let's see if Odile will add something more.

[Ntxw]

Will Odile make it to SoCal? I'm thinking yes if she squeezes her way to that narrow body of water in western Mexico (what's the name of that bay?).

This year's EPAC hurricane season is shaping up to be one of those years I wouldn't forget. This year we had a crossover hurricane from this basin, the strongest cyclone to hit Hawaii in 20 years, and the first Category 5 since Rick. Let's see if Odile will add something more.

Gulf of California

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will Odile make it to SoCal? I'm thinking yes if she squeezes her way to that narrow body of water in western Mexico (what's the name of that bay?).

This year's EPAC hurricane season is shaping up to be one of those years I wouldn't forget. This year we had a crossover hurricane from this basin, the strongest cyclone to hit Hawaii in 20 years, and the first Category 5 since Rick. Let's see if Odile will add something more.

The last category 5 was between Rick and Marie; Hurricane Celia of 2010. So Marie was the 1st since CELIA

Now, I see your point. This has been an impressive year over here and there is a new 'style' or 'strategy' of models-the most bullish one wins. I wish this would happen to the WPAC too.

And yeah, that bay is actually a gulf; gulf of California, and is wickedly favorable :O and storms that traverse the area tend to intensify very rapidly.

[WeatherGuesser]

I know there's an 'L' in there, but I keep seeing the name of Garfield's dog frenemy.


I don't think AZ would be looking for this to make it after the remains of Norbert.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IDK if its just me but 95E & 96E look much more organized than Tropical Storm Odile. Odile, although looking the least organized in the batch, is forecast to be the strongest and would be IMO.

[cycloneye]

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; FIX TROPICAL STORM ODILE
NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 12/1900Z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ODILE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 102.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB. Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest. Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get. The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore. The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water. The only limiting
factor could be land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today. Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[WeatherGuesser]

That was quick.

[Andrew92]

Given that we just got soaked to the max by the remnants of Norbert living in the Phoenix area, I know it looks like this is a slow mover but should I be watching Odile just in case it does something similar? Forecasts taking it close to Baja make me just a tad nervous about the prospect again, but I know it would probably be about a week or so away.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

Given that we just got soaked to the max by the remnants of Norbert living in the Phoenix area, I know it looks like this is a slow mover but should I be watching Odile just in case it does something similar? Forecasts taking it close to Baja make me just a tad nervous about the prospect again, but I know it would probably be about a week or so away.

-Andrew92

Definitely worth watching long term. Not direct effects but it's a small piece to a bigger issue. +ENSO fall is wet in the southern and SW US. It's all part of a bigger regime that's occuring and the active EPAC is feeding into the southern stream. Earlier in the season the activity didn't re-curve with little troughiness, not so the case heading forward.

[supercane4867]

12z GFS rapidly deepens Odile to 950mb in 72 hours

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Shear should plague Odile for the rest of today, but upper-level winds are forecast to relax under 10 knots starting tomorrow, at which point I expect rapid deepening. The SHIPS has been trending increasingly bullish with this storm, now peaking it at 111kt in 96 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Could this try to run up the Gulf of California and thread the needle?

[zeehag]

oh boy closest one yet...
still marina'd in isla de navidad, colima, mx....
not rooting for this one...

[supercane4867]

Every model seems to be trending west for now. 12z ECMWF shows no direct threat to land at all