EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

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Re:

#601 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:20 pm

Alyono wrote:sure that was not 180 kmh?


What? They use Murican units in Mexico don't they?
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Re:

#602 Postby CaneCurious » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:24 pm

Alyono wrote:sure that was not 180 kmh?


I am not sure. I am just relaying the info my mom gave me. She is going on 2 days with NO sleep so she may have been mistaken.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#603 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:56 pm

Warm waters in the GOC seem to be helping

Image
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#604 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:16 pm

Def. Would not shock me if this is a hurricane again tomorrow.
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#605 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:16 pm

Arizona will need to keep a close eye on this hurricane. It's holding its structure nicely.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#606 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:25 pm

With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92
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#607 Postby kimkolwiek » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:54 pm

Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!
Last edited by kimkolwiek on Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#608 Postby Socalsgrl » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:55 pm

Andrew92 wrote:With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92



I totally don't blame you! New Mexico looks like they are going to get a torrential down pour over the next 10 days.
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Re:

#609 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:25 am

kimkolwiek wrote:Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!


Yeah, it will help with the drought, but I don't want it all at once like we got with Norbert. Plus on top of it the fact that it might rain just about every day this week, and we really could be looking at a lot of flooding.

It's a very legitimate concern around here.

-Andrew92
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Re:

#610 Postby Socalsgrl » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:30 am

kimkolwiek wrote:Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!



Ditto
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Trust me, I am no where close to knowing what I am talking about so please do not take what I say as official info. I am not a professional nor do I play one on TV. I did however, stay at a Holiday Inn once! Have a great day!

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Re: Re:

#611 Postby kimkolwiek » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:35 am

Andrew92 wrote:
kimkolwiek wrote:Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!


Yeah, it will help with the drought, but I don't want it all at once like we got with Norbert. Plus on top of it the fact that it might rain just about every day this week, and we really could be looking at a lot of flooding.

It's a very legitimate concern around here.

-Andrew92


Well, let's wait and see. There is always a possibility that Odile will change its path.
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Re: Re:

#612 Postby kimkolwiek » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:43 am

Socalsgrl wrote:
kimkolwiek wrote:Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!



Ditto


Really? It only proves that more people can't wait for some rain in SoCal
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Re: Re:

#613 Postby Socalsgrl » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:54 am

kimkolwiek wrote:
Socalsgrl wrote:
kimkolwiek wrote:Looks like phoenix will recieve about 3 inches of rain. It will help the drought look at the positive aspect.
I wish that Southern California would get some of Odile's moisture - we need it!



Ditto


Really? It only proves that more people can't wait for some rain in SoCal



They are posing so many Water restrictions on us its ridiculous. Not allowed to water grass, only allowed so many gallons per day...
I know with us getting rain that it will mean flooding and landslides but we need the moisture so bad. They are putting pool builder out of business because we are not allowed to fill a pool now. Heavy fines are associated with it. Please send us some rain! Besides the fact that I miss living in a place that actually gets a mysterious thing called "weather".
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Trust me, I am no where close to knowing what I am talking about so please do not take what I say as official info. I am not a professional nor do I play one on TV. I did however, stay at a Holiday Inn once! Have a great day!

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Mississippi Gulf Coast Hurricane Danny 1997 Cat 1--Flooding

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#614 Postby kimkolwiek » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:08 am

You are right, it's a difficult time for us living here. I haven't seen a drop of rain since May
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#615 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:30 am

Andrew92 wrote:With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92
What did Norbert do to your backyard?

Almost nothing from the news on Odile here. I give the MSM a big fat F for this TC. TWN for us gave 10 seconds maybe for it, the rest was for rehashed & old non-weather stuff...no words...

It looks like Odile is back on the mend. Rampage all the way up. Look at the huge swath of heavy rain over MX! Just think of the flash flooding in all of those places; this tragedy is just getting started.
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#616 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:50 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA
KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS
AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#617 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:00 am

Just seen the devastation outside of the usual tourist spots, damn. Their infrastructure is very poor, houses made out of tins...likely they were unprepared too...
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#618 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:58 am

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite
imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center.
A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds
over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of
the Baja peninsula. Based on these data and the possibility of
stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula,
the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Odile should gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation
continues to interact with land. Odile is forecast to become a
tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low
within 48 hours. The new forecast now calls for dissipation within
3 days.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone
should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day
or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a
mid-level trough near southern California. The latest NHC track
is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's
circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States. Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
36H 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: Re:

#619 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:32 am

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:sure that was not 180 kmh?


What? They use Murican units in Mexico don't they?


no, they're metric. everyone is metric except for us and I think the Falklands.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#620 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:33 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92
What did Norbert do to your backyard?

Almost nothing from the news on Odile here. I give the MSM a big fat F for this TC. TWN for us gave 10 seconds maybe for it, the rest was for rehashed & old non-weather stuff...no words...

It looks like Odile is back on the mend. Rampage all the way up. Look at the huge swath of heavy rain over MX! Just think of the flash flooding in all of those places; this tragedy is just getting started.


Since communication is down, this is slowing down the spread of impact. That's why most of the chatter/picture have been from the airports and to a lesser extent, the beach.
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