EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

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Yellow Evan
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#621 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:05 am

EP, 15, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 280N, 1130W, 50, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 90, 90, 1006, 140, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091612, , BEST, 0, 280N, 1130W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 20, 1006, 140, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
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#622 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:06 am

00
WTPZ35 KNHC 161153
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 113.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS
AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#623 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:08 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92
What did Norbert do to your backyard?

Almost nothing from the news on Odile here. I give the MSM a big fat F for this TC. TWN for us gave 10 seconds maybe for it, the rest was for rehashed & old non-weather stuff...no words...

It looks like Odile is back on the mend. Rampage all the way up. Look at the huge swath of heavy rain over MX! Just think of the flash flooding in all of those places; this tragedy is just getting started.


Norbert caused near-record if not record floods that caught a lot of drivers by surprise in the Phoenix area. The image of cars in the water on the I-10 will stay with me for a long time. I really don't want to see that again.

-Andrew92
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#624 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:09 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking
since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of
the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near
the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the
mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the
Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on
inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move
northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn
toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern
Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the
northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is
expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS
and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening
in 24 hours.
By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly
degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with
dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation
over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#625 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:13 am

supercane4867 wrote:000

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
--
In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.


--
$$
Forecaster Stewart


Now that could be extremely interesting to see! But instead it seems we'll have a dozen storm chasers running after rain cells in Arizona. :roll:
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#626 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:17 am

Andrew92 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:With the way it keeps going right of its projected path, any chance it turns northeast sooner than forecast?

I'm sounding like a broken record, but for real, I really, Really, REALLY don't want a repeat of Norbert here!!! (on second thought, am I sounding desperate?)

-Andrew92
What did Norbert do to your backyard?

Almost nothing from the news on Odile here. I give the MSM a big fat F for this TC. TWN for us gave 10 seconds maybe for it, the rest was for rehashed & old non-weather stuff...no words...

It looks like Odile is back on the mend. Rampage all the way up. Look at the huge swath of heavy rain over MX! Just think of the flash flooding in all of those places; this tragedy is just getting started.


Norbert caused near-record if not record floods that caught a lot of drivers by surprise in the Phoenix area. The image of cars in the water on the I-10 will stay with me for a long time. I really don't want to see that again.

-Andrew92


some of the models are showing triple the rains with Odile that we saw with the moisture of Norbert. The difference is Norbert was merely the moisture. This will be the cyclone itself. Models are showing a typical tropical cyclone core dump with this one
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#627 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:27 am

Alyono wrote:some of the models are showing triple the rains with Odile that we saw with the moisture of Norbert. The difference is Norbert was merely the moisture. This will be the cyclone itself. Models are showing a typical tropical cyclone core dump with this one



I've also seen some tracks and media articles indicating remnants may get into the OK/AR areas.
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#628 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:41 am

I wonder how it will behave in the northern Gulf of California...could it actually try to re-intensify? Will there be Recon during that time?
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#629 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:35 pm

already seen some half an inch per hour rates over eastern Arizona.

This will almost certainly be the most destructive storm for the USA this season. Wonder why the thread is dead?
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Re:

#630 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:54 pm

Alyono wrote:already seen some half an inch per hour rates over eastern Arizona.

This will almost certainly be the most destructive storm for the USA this season. Wonder why the thread is dead?

It's going to be pretty historic for sure. Have we ever had a TS hit Arizona before?

Especially with that ex-TD lurking behind Odile and all that moisture that is going to continue being sent to the north.
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Re: Re:

#631 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:already seen some half an inch per hour rates over eastern Arizona.

This will almost certainly be the most destructive storm for the USA this season. Wonder why the thread is dead?

It's going to be pretty historic for sure. Have we ever had a TS hit Arizona before?

Especially with that ex-TD lurking behind Odile and all that moisture that is going to continue being sent to the north.


we've had quite a few full tropical storms strike Arizona. One actually struck them just a few hours before Andrew hit Florida.

This one will not be the usual Arizona, fast moving TS. This one will be SLOW
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#632 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:17 pm

According to Wikipedia (I'm aware it's not very reliable), the wettest TC to hit Arizona was Nora in 1997 with about 12 inches.
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#633 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:39 pm

Damn, I was hoping Odile would bring some moisture over to California. It's hot as hell over here
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#634 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 113.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the
past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave
satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de
Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center
is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC
ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt
vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is
set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind
radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm
warning along the west coast of Baja California.

The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be
moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge
over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern
Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.
Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,
little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,
rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to
dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation
over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
36H 18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#635 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:51 pm

Area of moderate rain has moved into Phoenix according to radar

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#636 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:51 pm

Last time TS winds were recorded in Arizona was with Nora in 1997 (45 mph sustained I believe in Yuma).

Have the NWS offices in the region considered tropical watches or warnings, like a tropical storm warning?
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#637 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:54 pm

Do we have enough members in the SW to warrant a separate thread for obs/local info?
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#638 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:10 pm

Safford is getting rates of close to a half inch an hour. This is in eastern Arizona. They have been getting at least .25 inch per hour for the last 90 minutes or so. Thus, I suspect flooding is going on there already
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#639 Postby Socalsgrl » Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:06 pm

We are finally getting some much needed rain in SoCal from Odile. We are north of the mexico border about 90 miles. Lots of thunder and lightning. Rain has not been too bad but the winds were gusting 60 mph at first. Not too bad now. East County San Diego had some warm air pull through and an apparent cloud collapse which brought 50 mph winds causing people to hold on to gas pumps at one station. Driving rain was also a factor. Where I am at it is still warm at 90 degrees but has cooled off by 20 degrees.
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Re:

#640 Postby Socalsgrl » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Do we have enough members in the SW to warrant a separate thread for obs/local info?



Good question, I only know of one other person.
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Trust me, I am no where close to knowing what I am talking about so please do not take what I say as official info. I am not a professional nor do I play one on TV. I did however, stay at a Holiday Inn once! Have a great day!

Mississippi Gulf Coast Hurricane Opal 1995 Cat 2--Wind Damage
Mississippi Gulf Coast Hurricane Danny 1997 Cat 1--Flooding


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