EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#641 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...CENTER OF ODILE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 113.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
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#642 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:42 pm

Well I just got off work and can offer a few observations from Phoenix.

It is very cloudy and humid where I am but there is no rain falling and I don't even see a puddle anywhere. It was somewhat windy during my lunch break and early afternoon but only slightly breezy now.

However, flash flood watches are in effect until Thursday, so the worst is still likely to come. Then again, the focus appears to be shifting to Tucson and points south and east, so we might miss the main event.

Alyono mentioned some heavy rain and possible flooding in Safford. That is 2-3 hours east of me and not indicative of what is going on in the Phoenix area. However, I would be more concerned now over there than where I am.

-Andrew92
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#643 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:03 pm

Officials estimated it would take two days to ferry out the 30,000 tourists who were being put up in temporary refuges or hotel areas converted to shelters. Some 26,000 of those were foreigners, primarily from the United States, Canada and Great Britain.

Thousands in the state of Baja California Sur remained without electricity, water or phone service. A boat was on its way with humanitarian aid, and authorities were working to restore utilities.


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... a-25527461
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#644 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:11 pm

Agreed Tucson into Albuquerque could see enormous rainfall and flood threats. Not sure what the wind threat for the SW US is.
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#645 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:16 pm

Nothing here yet.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#646 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:18 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#647 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:24 pm

Also just heard on the news the NWS now says it looks like I will miss it. Still no rain in the area.

EDIT: Seeing some patches of blue sky even here, but very dark to the south.

-Andrew92
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#648 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:36 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 170022
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 29.5N

D. 113.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/XX.X/XXHRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED OUT INTO THE BAY AND DT=2.5
BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. NO MET BUT PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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#649 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:46 pm

EP, 15, 2014091700, , BEST, 0, 294N, 1136W, 45, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 60, 1006, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#650 Postby JabNOLA » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:07 pm

Who would could predict that we would track the COC on the Yuma, AZ radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#651 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:35 pm

KYUX radar loop

Image
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#652 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:05 pm

JabNOLA wrote:Who would could predict that we would track the COC on the Yuma, AZ radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no


If an eyewall can clear, it would be 2-hourly advisories with hourly position estimates.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#653 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
JabNOLA wrote:Who would could predict that we would track the COC on the Yuma, AZ radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no


If an eyewall can clear, it would be 2-hourly advisories with hourly position estimates.

Does NHC issues 2-hourly advisory even with no TS warnings in effect for US?
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#654 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
JabNOLA wrote:Who would could predict that we would track the COC on the Yuma, AZ radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no


If an eyewall can clear, it would be 2-hourly advisories with hourly position estimates.

Does NHC issues 2-hourly advisory even with no TS warnings in effect for US?


I believe so, although there isn't really much precedence.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#655 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE MOVING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 113.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for
now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation. Since the center of
circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,
it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico on Wednesday. After that occurs, weakening should
be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant
low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours. The official
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues
to be northward or about 360/6 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast over the next day or so. The official
track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCE.

Moisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the
moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be
crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours. This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States. Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#656 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Does NHC issues 2-hourly advisory even with no TS warnings in effect for US?


I believe so, although there isn't really much precedence.


This might be the first opportunity to see the protocol change in action for posttropical cyclones after Sandy hit.
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#657 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:45 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
This might be the first opportunity to see the protocol change in action for posttropical cyclones after Sandy hit.


Andrea 13?
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Re: EPAC: ODILE - Tropical Storm

#658 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:26 am

...ODILE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 113.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

Image
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#659 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:51 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...ODILE CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH
OF BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM GUAYMAS TO PUERTO PENASCO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER ODILE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS...AND ALSO FROM NEAR SAN FELIPE AROUND THE
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR PUERTO PENASCO. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 18 INCHES ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATE OF SONORA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SWELLS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#660 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:55 am

EP, 15, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 304N, 1134W, 40, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 120, 0, 60, 1006, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
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