EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

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supercane4867
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EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:15 pm

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:18 pm

A weak area of low pressure has developed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves northward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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#3 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:48 pm

Those percentages seems low to me. it looks very good.

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#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:47 pm

A small area of low pressure located about 875 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organized during the day.
However, significant development of this system is not anticipated
while it moves generally northward and then northeastward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:49 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952014 09/10/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 58 63 66 65 64 61
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 48 52 58 63 66 65 64 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 43 49 54 57 60 64 67 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 11 12 13 14 11 14 11 15 17 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -4 -2 0 3 1 0 -1 1 0 3
SHEAR DIR 37 57 47 48 63 56 61 76 76 92 103 92 101
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 143 144 143 142 142 141 141 142 141 141
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 69 70 65 61 59 53 50 45 42 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -17 -13 0 7 20 24 7 18 34 46 45
200 MB DIV 24 31 14 17 14 33 43 42 30 25 63 51 15
700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 2 4 5
LAND (KM) 1428 1442 1461 1478 1499 1533 1574 1612 1649 1700 1745 1792 1815
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.1 13.9 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.2 118.9 120.1 121.2 122.2 123.1 123.8 124.5 124.9 125.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 20 20 19 19 21 23 20 18 17 18
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Re:

#6 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:34 am

Ntxw wrote:Those percentages seems low to me. it looks very good.

I think both 94E and 95E should be classified right now (5:00 am EDT). I remember chatter about how the first half of September in the Epac was going to be "dead" with no tropical cyclones and now we have 1 major hurricane and two possible future hurricanes with one maybe major as well in the first half...

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#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:54 am

An area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing signs
of organization. This low could become a tropical depression
during the next day or two before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This system is expected to move slowly northward during
the next couple of days and then turn eastward after that.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
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#8 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:01 am

Wow. Impressed by the structure and organization of 95E, looks like we could see 16E later today.
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Re: Re:

#9 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:48 am

Cyclenall wrote:I think both 94E and 95E should be classified right now (5:00 am EDT). I remember chatter about how the first half of September in the Epac was going to be "dead" with no tropical cyclones and now we have 1 major hurricane and two possible future hurricanes with one maybe major as well in the first half...

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EPAC this year knows no boundaries. Quiet for it is 1 active major :lol:
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:53 am

EP, 95, 2014091012, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1168W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

No hints of an upgrade.
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Re: Re:

#11 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:58 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Those percentages seems low to me. it looks very good.

I think both 94E and 95E should be classified right now (5:00 am EDT). I remember chatter about how the first half of September in the Epac was going to be "dead" with no tropical cyclones and now we have 1 major hurricane and two possible future hurricanes with one maybe major as well in the first half...

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I have found out that when conditions are ripe for development like they are in the EPAC the MJO phase does not matter much, IMO, if that is why some might have been thinking the reason why the EPAC was going to be quiet the first 2 weeks of this month.
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:06 am

NDG wrote:I have found out that when conditions are ripe for development like they are in the EPAC the MJO phase does not matter much, IMO, if that is why some might have been thinking the reason why the EPAC was going to be quiet the first 2 weeks of this month.


Yep, both the Atlantic and EPAC have both shown us that the background state of the basins lays the groundwork first of how effective other things are. It's not to say MJO/KW's can't help with the forecast. The EPAC this year has seen multiple active storms during passage of KW vs single systems in between. While the same KW produces one system over in the Atlantic.
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Re: Re:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:08 am

NDG wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Those percentages seems low to me. it looks very good.

I think both 94E and 95E should be classified right now (5:00 am EDT). I remember chatter about how the first half of September in the Epac was going to be "dead" with no tropical cyclones and now we have 1 major hurricane and two possible future hurricanes with one maybe major as well in the first half...

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I have found out that when conditions are ripe for development like they are in the EPAC the MJO phase does not matter much, IMO, if that is why some might have been thinking the reason why the EPAC was going to be quiet the first 2 weeks of this month.


When conditions are ripe for development, storms form regardless of MJO. MJO helps though. With that said, we have CCKW support now.
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#14 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 9:22 am

Somehow this isn't a tropical depression...apparently.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#15 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 10:14 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 116.1W TO 16.0N 118.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 116.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

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#16 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:50 pm

1. Satellite images indicate that a tropical depression may be
forming about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. If current trends continue, advisories
will likely be initiated on this system later today or tonight.
This system is expected to move slowly northward during the next
couple of days and then turn eastward after that.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:59 pm

Why is this not a TD?
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Re:

#18 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:19 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Why is this not a TD?

No idea. It's met the criteria for the past day. ASCAT from last night showed a closed, well-defined circulation, and satellite imagery shows that the system has maintained organized convection over the center.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:29 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 102355
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 13.3N

D. 118.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING
APPROXIMATELY 1.4 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT IS ALSO 2.0
WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:32 pm

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little less organized, with the center
becoming displaced to the north of the shower and thunderstorm
activity. However, only a slight increase in organization of the
system would lead to the development of a tropical depression, and
advisories could still be initiated tonight or on Thursday while the
low moves northward at about 5 mph. The low is forecast to turn
eastward by Friday and could become absorbed by Odile over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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