EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:59 pm

Maybe...it has a brief window of opportunity to become Polo before dissipation.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#62 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:54 pm

I was hoping for this storm to become Polo...so that we could just proceed with Rachel right away... but now it looks like a much stronger vortex named Odile will suck life out of this before having a chance to be named.

OT: Are the models still seeing a major hurricane after Odile?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:22 am

dexterlabio wrote:I was hoping for this storm to become Polo...so that we could just proceed with Rachel right away... but now it looks like a much stronger vortex named Odile will suck life out of this before having a chance to be named.

OT: Are the models still seeing a major hurricane after Odile?


Yes. And FTR this is super close to becoming Polo.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:22 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:04:32 N Lon : 115:52:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1008.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -48.1C Cloud Region Temp : -52.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.2 degrees
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:31 am

This is really annoying.

EP, 16, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1158W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:39 am

Looks fantastic. Banding and cold cloud tops.

Just short though.

20140914 0600 14.8 115.8 T2.0/2.0 16E NONAME

TXPZ23 KNES 140627
TCSENP

A. 16E (NONAME)

B. 14/0600Z

C. 14.8N

D. 115.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCLEAR NATURE OF CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0158Z 15.0N 116.3W WINDSAT
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:03 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141452
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has been hanging in there as a
tenacious system despite strong easterly shear in excess of 25 kt.
Yet another burst of deep convection has developed over and west
of the center, yielding intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from
TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and T3.4/34 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
However, the overall convective cloud pattern has not changed much
since the last ASCAT overpass yesterday, which indicated surface
winds of near 30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain
at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression has continued to accelerate around the southern
periphery of major Hurricane Odile, and the initial motion is
090/11 kt, which is based mainly on microwave satellite fix
positions. The NHC guidance remains in fair agreement that the
depression and its remnants will continue to rotate around the
southern and eastern periphery of Odile during the next couple of
days. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies between a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.

The strong low-level circulation of Odile, combined with its robust
easterly outflow, is forecast to produce significant shear across
the depression during the next 48 hours. This is expected to
result in the depression degenerating into an open trough within
the next 24-36 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.0N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#68 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:41 am

This really deserves a name.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:08 am

I feel this will be an unnamed tropical storm in post-analysis if this doesn't get Polo operationally. I think they are hesitant thinking it will dissipate soon (which it hasn't yet) and only upgrading if it becomes obvious (i.e. an ASCAT pass with 35 kt winds, or a T3.0 from Dvorak).
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:16 am

There's no reason to be hesitant. If it was a TS for 6 hours, so be it.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#71 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:20 am

Last ASCAT pass unfortunately missed the storm...
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:21 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Last ASCAT pass unfortunately missed the storm...


Another one is coming shortly.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:28 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:01:20 N Lon : 113:47:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1009.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -17.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 14:25:12 N Lon: 113:47:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:30 am

ADT isn't very useful in weak systems.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#75 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:36 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate
this afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side
of the deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a
partial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.


The depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while
continuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane
Odile. A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is
expected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a
trough. Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#76 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:36 pm

ASCAT did confirms 30kt winds, yet these are even far away from the deep convection

Image
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:44 pm

Based on that, I would say 35-40 kt intensity. Given the large area of 30+ and the deep convection farther away, I would call it a tropical storm personally.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:00 pm

NHC is tempted.

EP, 16, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1128W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 80, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:02 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2014 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 112:50:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1008.5mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.7

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -12.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.40^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.6 degrees
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re:

#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:NHC is tempted.

EP, 16, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1128W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 80, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,


I think they are trying to decide if it is worth it. Models consistently say dissipation but it hasn't happened yet. I think it is likely there will be a post-season upgrade though...
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests