EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

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Yellow Evan
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#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:06 pm

galaxy401 wrote:This storm must not be named if we want that hurricane streak to continue!


It's lasted long enough. I wanna cross another name off the list.
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#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:45 pm

EP, 16, 2014091200, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1202W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:52 pm

20140912 0000 16.4 120.2 T2.0/2.5 16E NONAME

Why lower now?
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#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:20 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 120046
TCSENP

A. 16E (NONAME)

B. 12/0000Z

C. 16.4N

D. 120.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER LIES NORTH OF THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION. 3/10 BANDING RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.5 BUT THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT SO THE FT IS
BASED ON MET OF 2.0. PT IS ALSO 2.0.
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#45 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 11, 2014 9:07 pm

Looks...not too good.
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Re:

#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 9:20 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Looks...not too good.


Convection is coming closer to the center.
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#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:57 pm

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Earlier microwave imagery indicated that the low-level center of
the depression was located near the northern edge of the deep
convection. The convection itself is not all that organized, and
the cloud tops have recently been warming. The system remains a
30-kt depression based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The
vertical shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase out of
the east during the next 12-24 hours, which should prevent
strengthening during the next couple of days. The depression is
likely to become absorbed by the larger circulation of Tropical
Storm Odile, and the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by
day 3.

The initial motion is northward, or 360/5 kt. Low clouds to the
east of the depression are already being pulled eastward into
Odile's circulation, and the depression is also likely to be pulled
northeastward and eastward during the next 24 hours. The available
track models are showing a faster eastward motion on this cycle, and
the updated NHC forecast is adjusted eastward near the multi-model
consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:41 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120845
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression
is still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep
convection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt
analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest
TAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to
gradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification.
Thee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to
a remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed
into the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However,
both of these could occur sooner than indicated.

The depression has been drifting northward during the past few
hours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward
motion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes
under the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of
motion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the
track guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than
the previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#49 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:40 pm

Very tiny depression.
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#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:05 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122040
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

The depression is not well organized with limited deep convection
and little, if any, convective banding to be seen. Earlier SSMI,
SSMIS, and a more recent ASCAT overpass showed that the low-level
center was displaced to the east-northeast of a small cluster of
showers. The current intensity is kept at 30 kt based on the
scatterometer data. The ASCAT overpass, however, also showed that
the low-level circulation was becoming elongated from southwest to
northeast. The unfavorable low-level influence of the much larger
circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the
east, is expected to become increasingly disruptive to the
depression. The system is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low sooner than shown in earlier advisories.

Based on the microwave observations and visible satellite imagery,
the cyclone has been moving slowly east-northeastward or 070/3.
The depression or post-tropical cyclone should soon become
entrained into the circulation of Odile and turn eastward to
east-southeastward over the next day or so. The official track
forecast is between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.9N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.7N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 15.9N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:34 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130255
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has become poorly organized this
evening. Deep convection is limited to an amorphous blob on the
western side of the increasingly elongated low-level wind center.
The initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 30 kt based
on the Dvorak classification from TAFB. The recent disruption of
the circulation is primarily due to the proximity of the depression
to Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the east. As a
result, the environment around the depression consists of increasing
wind shear in the vertical and horizontal. The environment is
expected to become even more unfavorable while the depression moves
closer to Odile. All of the global and regional dynamical models
forecast that the depression will open up into a trough within 36
hours, and some suggest that this could occur much sooner than that.

The cyclone is beginning to accelerate toward the east and the
initial motion is 110/05. The models remain in good agreement that
the depression, or its remnants, will accelerate toward Odile on a
nearly straight line until dissipation. No substantial changes
were made to the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:28 am

TXPZ23 KNES 130616
TCSENP

A. 16E (NONAME)

B. 13/0600Z

C. 16.2N

D. 118.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUDS LINES UNDER SMALL COLD OVERCAST
FOR A SHEAR MATRIX DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

20140913 0600 16.2 118.3 T2.0/2.0 16E NONAME

Dare I say it be one last shot to earn a name? It was T1.0 12 hours ago.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2014 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:05 N Lon : 117:50:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1007.4mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +16.3C Cloud Region Temp : -12.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.27^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees
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#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:34 am

Not high enough. Darn.

EP, 16, 2014091306, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1177W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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#54 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:56 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 117.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BRENNAN
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:46 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131438
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A strong burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C
have developed during the past few hours near and to the southwest
of the center of TD-16E. In addition, recent passive microwave
satellite images indicate that the low-level circulation remains
well defined despite the moderate northeasterly shear that has been
affecting the small cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is
based on consensus T2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and SAB.
UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are T2.5/35 kt, but the intensity is being
held below this value due to the pulsing nature of the deep
convection. The initial position was adjusted slightly southward of
the previous track based on a 1040 UTC SSMI microwave overpass.

The initial motion estimate is toward the east-southeast or 110/06
kt. The depression is forecast to gradually turn more eastward as
it comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the
south side of Hurricane Odile, which is located more than 700 nmi to
its east. The only change to the previous forecast track was to add
remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours given that most of the
global models are now maintaining a discrete circulation a little
bit longer. By 72 hours, however, the small cyclone is expected to
be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile.

The vertical wind shear is expected to remain moderate from the
northeast and east at 15-20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, followed
by even stronger shear induced by the outflow from Odile as the two
cyclones move closer to each other. As a result, the depression is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24-36 hours. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the ICON consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 15.5N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0000Z 16.0N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z 18.4N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE
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#56 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:02 am

So much for the H train.
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Re:

#57 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:05 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:So much for the H train.


This was never suppose to be a hurricane.
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Re: Re:

#58 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:So much for the H train.


This was never suppose to be a hurricane.


Didn't say it was. But it breaks the chain of consecutive escalations.
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#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:49 pm

EP, 16, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1171W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:49 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140235
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Satellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat
better organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images
showed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale
cyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band
consisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted
on the south side of circulation. Since there have been no
fundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory,
the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt.

Opposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile
environment of easterly shear over the depression, with global
models showing the shear increasing while the depression nears
Hurricane Odile. The model guidance shows that the shear will
become so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open
trough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit.

The depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or
120/08. The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and
east-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into
the circulation of Hurricane Odile. The system should turn
northeastward after that time before losing its identity altogether.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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