EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Remnants

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CrazyC83
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#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:59 pm

Maybe...it has a brief window of opportunity to become Polo before dissipation.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#62 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:54 pm

I was hoping for this storm to become Polo...so that we could just proceed with Rachel right away... but now it looks like a much stronger vortex named Odile will suck life out of this before having a chance to be named.

OT: Are the models still seeing a major hurricane after Odile?
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:22 am

dexterlabio wrote:I was hoping for this storm to become Polo...so that we could just proceed with Rachel right away... but now it looks like a much stronger vortex named Odile will suck life out of this before having a chance to be named.

OT: Are the models still seeing a major hurricane after Odile?


Yes. And FTR this is super close to becoming Polo.
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#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:22 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:04:32 N Lon : 115:52:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1008.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -48.1C Cloud Region Temp : -52.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.2 degrees
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#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:31 am

This is really annoying.

EP, 16, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1158W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 1:39 am

Looks fantastic. Banding and cold cloud tops.

Just short though.

20140914 0600 14.8 115.8 T2.0/2.0 16E NONAME

TXPZ23 KNES 140627
TCSENP

A. 16E (NONAME)

B. 14/0600Z

C. 14.8N

D. 115.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCLEAR NATURE OF CLOUD FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0158Z 15.0N 116.3W WINDSAT
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#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:03 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141452
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has been hanging in there as a
tenacious system despite strong easterly shear in excess of 25 kt.
Yet another burst of deep convection has developed over and west
of the center, yielding intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from
TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and T3.4/34 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
However, the overall convective cloud pattern has not changed much
since the last ASCAT overpass yesterday, which indicated surface
winds of near 30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain
at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression has continued to accelerate around the southern
periphery of major Hurricane Odile, and the initial motion is
090/11 kt, which is based mainly on microwave satellite fix
positions. The NHC guidance remains in fair agreement that the
depression and its remnants will continue to rotate around the
southern and eastern periphery of Odile during the next couple of
days. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies between a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.

The strong low-level circulation of Odile, combined with its robust
easterly outflow, is forecast to produce significant shear across
the depression during the next 48 hours. This is expected to
result in the depression degenerating into an open trough within
the next 24-36 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.0N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#68 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:41 am

This really deserves a name.
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#69 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:08 am

I feel this will be an unnamed tropical storm in post-analysis if this doesn't get Polo operationally. I think they are hesitant thinking it will dissipate soon (which it hasn't yet) and only upgrading if it becomes obvious (i.e. an ASCAT pass with 35 kt winds, or a T3.0 from Dvorak).
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#70 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:16 am

There's no reason to be hesitant. If it was a TS for 6 hours, so be it.
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#71 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:20 am

Last ASCAT pass unfortunately missed the storm...
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Re:

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:21 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Last ASCAT pass unfortunately missed the storm...


Another one is coming shortly.
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:28 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:01:20 N Lon : 113:47:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1009.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -17.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 14:25:12 N Lon: 113:47:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees
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#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:30 am

ADT isn't very useful in weak systems.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#75 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:36 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate
this afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side
of the deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a
partial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.


The depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while
continuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane
Odile. A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is
expected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a
trough. Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 16E

#76 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:36 pm

ASCAT did confirms 30kt winds, yet these are even far away from the deep convection

Image
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#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:44 pm

Based on that, I would say 35-40 kt intensity. Given the large area of 30+ and the deep convection farther away, I would call it a tropical storm personally.
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#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:00 pm

NHC is tempted.

EP, 16, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1128W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 80, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:02 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2014 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 112:50:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1008.5mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.7

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -12.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.40^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.6 degrees
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Re:

#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:NHC is tempted.

EP, 16, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1128W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 80, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,


I think they are trying to decide if it is worth it. Models consistently say dissipation but it hasn't happened yet. I think it is likely there will be a post-season upgrade though...
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