ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yep. Didn't think it would develop anyway but even if it wanted to conditions out there wouldn't allow it. They are just horrible. Bet at the next update the nhc drops it chances down to 0 and 20

[Frank P]

Center of little naked swirl of what's left of 92L... hanging on by barely a thread...

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[tropicwatch]

Yep. Didn't think it would develop anyway but even if it wanted to conditions out there wouldn't allow it. They are just horrible. Bet at the next update the nhc drops it chances down to 0 and 20

I wouldn't count it out yet. It still has a distinct circulation and it is forecast to be in the Gulf for quite awhile.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Yep. Didn't think it would develop anyway but even if it wanted to conditions out there wouldn't allow it. They are just horrible. Bet at the next update the nhc drops it chances down to 0 and 20

I wouldn't count it out yet. It still has a distinct circulation and it is forecast to be in the Gulf for quite awhile.

I think this thing has finally lost. It put up a good fight but the circulation has gotten weaker over warmer waters and it has NO convection to it's north and dry air is causing that. It is getting ready to hit wind shear while trying to work out dry air. I'd put the odds at 0%/%5 if I could. Enjoy following it but know that it stands virtually no chance of development even though it has hit the Gulf of Mexico.

[baytownwx]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26.5&lon=-83.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=8

Original circulation looks like it's opening up, but new convection firing to the southeast.

[Senobia]

From local mets (SETX) at 8pm Friday night:

A tropical low has just moved off Florida's West Coast near Tampa and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system could become an issue early next week. At this point, it is too early to tell exactly where it will end up. However, it appears it could affect the Texas Coast. The low will be steered west by middle-level high pressure to its north. IF the high is strong, then it will go into South Texas. However, IF the high weakens, then it could move further northward up the coast. This is something we need to watch very closely should the system strengthen.


It mere speculation on whether or not the low will strengthen. However, conditions will become a little more favorable for that to happen.

[timmeister]

Yep. Didn't think it would develop anyway but even if it wanted to conditions out there wouldn't allow it. They are just horrible. Bet at the next update the nhc drops it chances down to 0 and 20

I wouldn't count it out yet. It still has a distinct circulation and it is forecast to be in the Gulf for quite awhile.

92L is in a very unfavorable environment. With shear from 2 directions caused by being sandwiched between 2 ULL's, along with the dry air being forced into the COC by the ULL to the NE, it doesn't stand a chance. If you look at the visible satellite loop you can see the cloud tops being blown off by the shear from the NE, and the also the shear from the NW. Conditions would have to change drastically for this thing to even strengthen into a TD.



Also, the water vapor loop shows the dry air being forced into the circulation.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks Turrrible! Stick a fork in it!

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the southeast of 92L will eventually pull some moist air across Florida and odds are high shear will decrease sometime next week..
Hopefully the moisture plume form 94L won't just soften the ground and loosen the roots for 92L later.

[Ntxw]

92L has been plagued by ENE wind shear since yesterday. It's best chance (shear wise) was Thurs before crossing FLA. Dry air was allowed to be entrained because of this shear. SHIPS did a good job forecasting the shear. A dry system in the southern gulf, in Sept is strange to see.

[Rgv20]

92L not looking to hot right now and upper level conditions are forecast to be unfavorable for development as it tracks west. With that said 92L is forecast to keep tracking west to South Texas so I will be keeping at least one eye on it!

[Craters]

From the 10:09 AM discussion by the Houston/Galveston NWS:

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW.

I think we could do without the thing developing and visiting us here in the Houston area. We got 2" yesterday in Alvin just from the front coming through and, as Nimbus mentioned, the roots are already loosened. Even moderately high winds could wreak arborial (?!) havoc.

[MGC]

Dry air and shear keeping 92L in check.....lets hope it stays that way and 92L dissipates......MGC

[cycloneye]

The area of low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is
becoming less defined and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development and
the low will most likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure
while it moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[davidiowx]

It still appears the LLC is still intact per visible sat. At least it looks that way to me. The lack of convection is really damning though. I think it will just move across to TX and bring a few wind gust and some cirrus clouds. Just my opinion.

[tropicwatch]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well looks like my prediction of 20% chance of development was a little high This thing is done. Time to look elsewhere for the next blob of thunderstorms that will suffer the same fate.

A little off topic but of more important note is down here in south Louisiana in mid September our high hasn't even made it to 80. Sitting at 78 at 1:30. Fall is right around the corner to wrap this dismal season up.

[davidiowx]

As long as it still has a spin like it has, I wouldn't "completely" write it off. But yes you are right, 92L is against all odds at the moment.

[HouTXmetro]

No signs of convection firing off anytime soon.

[davidiowx]

No signs of convection firing off anytime soon.

It looks like it is trying really hard to.. Could just be a short lived thing though

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/avn-animated.gif