ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Sanibel]

The energy tends to spread out when it weakens by going over land. So that would explain those SE bands deepening.


It should sense the Gulf and burst again by morning. But that burst will probably be displaced to the SW by shear again.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

The energy tends to spread out when it weakens by going over land. So that would explain those SE bands deepening.


It should sense the Gulf and burst again by morning. But that burst will probably be displaced to the SW by shear again.

Already is feeling it and I'll believe the shear when I see it. When I do see it I'll know the Gulf of Mexico and all of its residents are safe IN MY OPINION.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind shear still shouldn't be a factor in the near term, though that could all change quickly in a few days? I'm confused why the NHC thinks upper level winds are not favorable for much development from 92L? Besides looking at the first graphic TS Edouard has higher shear to deal with than 92L.

[HouTXmetro]

Could the ULL potentially over take 92L as it moves Westward? Where 92L eventually ends up Southeast of the ULL. Because it appears to be moving faster than 92L.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0438&animate=true

Looking MUCH BETTER on radar here and you can clearly see center.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest radar from Tampa showing 92L.

[Steve]

Definite center of circulation evident on those radar views. No enhancement IR looks juicy on the back side. Look out for potential deluges in Broward and Palm Beach Counties in the overnight hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Oh and wrong thread but 00-06z models are coalescing around a southern TX Coast track.

[jlauderdal]

Definite center of circulation evident on those radar views. No enhancement IR looks juicy on the back side. Look out for potential deluges in Broward and Palm Beach Counties in the overnight hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Oh and wrong thread but 00-06z models are coalescing around a southern TX Coast track.

we had another landfall- this morning, 2nd in two days, this time it was an ULL

more wind this morning then with yesterdays landfall event

it only takes one landfall to make your season active..

[underthwx]

Wxman 57...need your expertise on what impacts 92l may have on our area...thanks...btw...good morning!

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

The area of low pressure that was over Florida yesterday is now
located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Shower activity
has not become any better organized, and upper-level winds are not
favorable for significant development as the system moves generally
westward during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled for today is likely to be
canceled. Locally heavy rains associated with the low will continue
over portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Portastorm]

Wxman 57...need your expertise on what impacts 92l may have on our area...thanks...btw...good morning!

Assuming tracks taking 92L to the mid Texas coast, I'd say the greatest likelihood is enhanced rainfall chances and perhaps "more" if 92L develops further. But the latter is not likely at this point.

Oh, and I'm not wxman57 ... but you knew that.

[Dean4Storms]

It might become a TD or very weak TS but I just don't see much more than that. For one it is gulping a big gulp of dry air from the N and NE and wind shear coming from every direction as it traverses the Gulf.

WV loop.....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/e ... sh-wv.html

[tropicwatch]

It appears to be still on the edge of 20kt wind shear but just west of that is 5-10.



First few visible frames http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26.5&lon=-83.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=4

[perk]

Wxman 57...need your expertise on what impacts 92l may have on our area...thanks...btw...good morning!

Assuming tracks taking 92L to the mid Texas coast, I'd say the greatest likelihood is enhanced rainfall chances and perhaps "more" if 92L develops further. But the latter is not likely at this point.

Oh, and I'm not wxman57 ... but you knew that.

Enhanced rain sounds good.

[Sanibel]

That finger of dry air from the Northeast is staying with it and wiping it out. Good if you don't want to get hit by a cyclone. Bad if you're into tracking well devleoped storms.

[jlauderdal]

That finger of dry air from the Northeast is staying with it and wiping it out. Good if you don't want to get hit by a cyclone. Bad if you're into tracking well devleoped storms.

things ok on the west coast after point of closest approach yesteday?

[tropicwatch]

It will take it awhile to work out that dry air.

Water Vapor Loop

[Sanibel]

things ok on the west coast after point of closest approach yesteday?

Call me easily amused but even the clouds and breezes of a weak pre-TD fascinates me. We never got a drop of rain from 92L. It's strange how a naked spiral in one case will burst and develop and in another remain just a weak technical feature.

[jlauderdal]

things ok on the west coast after point of closest approach yesteday?

Call me easily amused but even the clouds and breezes of a weak pre-TD fascinates me. We never got a drop of rain from 92L. It's strange how a naked spiral in one case will burst and develop and in another remain just a weak technical feature.

it was an amusing feature to be sure....over 5 inches of rain inland palm beach county so it wasnt exactly a bust

[pgoss11]

That dry air is definitely not helping. The circulation looks less defined to me.