ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Senobia]

This image is from the Gulf Coast Weather/Gulf Coast Spotters page. It was accompanied by a big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue, won't develop - blah blah. If that's the case, what are all these models seeing to track?

[LaBreeze]

This image is from the Gulf Coast Weather/Gulf Coast Spotters page. It was accompanied by a big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue, won't develop - blah blah. If that's the case, what are all these models seeing to track?

Exactly - but I would expect these plots to probably change.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET is showing some development in the GOM though not as strong as the 00Z, and turns it to the NW then E at the end, similar to the GEM and NAVGEM models. When it turns E, it starts to develop:

[Frank2]

Looking at the local radar the area of light rain is shrinking and seems to be moving west, with a twist in the echos now west of GBI, but as the NHC said northerly shear is affecting the weak low...

[skysummit]

This image is from the Gulf Coast Weather/Gulf Coast Spotters page. It was accompanied by a big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue, won't develop - blah blah. If that's the case, what are all these models seeing to track?

"Big long spiel"???? I made the post on GCWX and was notified that it was on here so I figured I'd chime in. It's my image. Here's the post:

http://forums.gulfcoastwx.com/post/128305/thread


No where does it have a "big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue". The discussion is how upper levels are not supportive of anything threatening.

[Senobia]

This image is from the Gulf Coast Weather/Gulf Coast Spotters page. It was accompanied by a big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue, won't develop - blah blah. If that's the case, what are all these models seeing to track?

"Big long spiel"???? I made the post on GCWX and was notified that it was on here so I figured I'd chime in. It's my image. Here's the post:

http://forums.gulfcoastwx.com/post/128305/thread


No where does it have a "big long spiel about how this system is a non-issue". The discussion is how upper levels are not supportive of anything threatening.

Actually, no - here....is the post that *I* was referencing:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=731789350192293

early afternoon guidance on 92L. Thankfully upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the life of 92L. If it were to come together in the gulf, we'd be looking at a TD or weak TS at most, but even that is pretty unlikely as of now.

From your Facebook page, via your Twitter.

Now that you're here, I'll ask you the question I posed earlier. If this system is really a non-issue, what are the models seeing in your graphic?

[skysummit]

Ahhh...gotcha.

Yes, when that post was made, upper level conditions were forecasted to be highly unfavorable in the gulf, however latest upper level forecasts have somewhat changed, and are now indicating conditions may not be all that bad in the gulf (especially the ECMWF). So while this still should not be a highly threatening system, chances are increasing that this may eventually reach TS status in the gulf, and possibly a moderate to strong one given the latest data. (one model even forecasts a hurricane in 5 days, but big grains of salt are taken with it)

It could be an interesting weekend of watching for gulf coast residents.

[N2FSU]

FWIW (probably not much) the Canadian stays consistent with a westward moving storm that comes to the doorstep of LA, then turns due east and rides the coastline:

CMC 00Z +24

[N2FSU]

00Z+72

[N2FSU]

00Z +120

[N2FSU]

00Z +144

[N2FSU]

00Z +162

[N2FSU]

00Z +216

[N2FSU]

Then you have the 06Z GFS +114

[N2FSU]

Some 12Z runs

[Senobia]

Some 12Z runs

Again, what's with the retreat? It gets all the way to Texas, meets the cold front (that may nor may not be happening) and decides, "Ooops, wrong way, lemme turn around"?

I don't understand that recurve at all.

[Senobia]

Ahhh...gotcha.

Yes, when that post was made, upper level conditions were forecasted to be highly unfavorable in the gulf, however latest upper level forecasts have somewhat changed, and are now indicating conditions may not be all that bad in the gulf (especially the ECMWF). So while this still should not be a highly threatening system, chances are increasing that this may eventually reach TS status in the gulf, and possibly a moderate to strong one given the latest data. (one model even forecasts a hurricane in 5 days, but big grains of salt are taken with it)

It could be an interesting weekend of watching for gulf coast residents.

Okay. Thanks.

[tolakram]

The 0Z euro did show a small low at 72 hours.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Some 12Z runs

Time to start boarding up and gassing up vehicles and generators.

[Nimbus]

I was kind of hoping 92L would stay shallow enough that it would come back to Florida and give us some rain for the winter wells.
Mexico doesn't need a cat 3.