WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

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#61 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:40 am

Power facility of Manila Airport Radar caught a fire after being struck by lightning.
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:00 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. A 191000Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE 37 GHZ IMAGE ADDITIONALLY REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC WHICH
HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP ALONG WITH THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS
THAT INDICATED 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS FUNG-WONG IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTH THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND ANOTHER STR
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENS. TS 15W WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS ACROSS THE LUZON STRAIT AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF TAIWAN NEAR TAU 36 AND WEAKEN AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
TAIWAN IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS
INDICATING THE NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROCEED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JGSM, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIERS KEEPING THE STR MORE POLEWARD ORIENTED ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO PROCEED MORE NORTH. GFDN, NAVGEM, GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STR
ORIENTED THAT AMPLIFIES DRIVING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
MAINLAND CHINA. AFTER TAU 72 AND LAND FALL INTO CHINA, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHICH
WILL INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST, COMPLETING ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE THE VARYING EXTENT OF STR
DEPICTED IN THE MODEL TRACKERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:05 pm

Image

More flooding...
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:21 pm

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:35 pm

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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:11 pm

16W FUNG-WONG 140919 1800 18.8N 119.6E WPAC 40 993
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:50 pm

Basing on visible sat, it looks like the center of the storm is already east of 120E and north of 19N. There's a pretty evident center of circulation that is tracking N or NNE.
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:48 pm

00z Best Track:

16W FUNG-WONG 140920 0000 19.6N 119.9E WPAC 45 989
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:28 am

16W FUNG-WONG 140920 0600 20.0N 119.7E WPAC 45 981

Barely moving...
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:03 am

Image

Possible typhoon at landfall...
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:12 am

Image

50 knots!

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR ANIMATION AND RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN SHOW THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ALONG THE TAIWANESE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AT A MUCH GREATER SPEED. A 211149Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE SSMIS
IMAGE, TAIWAN RADAR FIXES AS WELL AS PGTW SATELLITE FIXES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN
CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO AN ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
TS 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LAND FALL INTO THE EASTERN CHINA MUCH
SOONER THAN EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE.
B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, BUT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LAND, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN 50 KNOT STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CHINA. CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, TS 16W WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK SPEEDS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:15 am

Looks loike Taipei like most of Taiwan will experience TS force winds...
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:21 am

Image

Impressive...eye?
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#74 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:31 am

Image

Radar from Taiwan...

Image

Very heavy rains and a closed eye...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:35 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:42 am

Image

Post season upgrade to a typhoon at landfall?? sure looks like it...
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:20 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE
FEEDER BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AND BREAK UP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON RADAR
FIXES FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 16W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING
POLEWARD VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN
RECURVE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING
A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW IN THE YELLOW SEA BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES WITH GFNI ON THE
LEFT AND HWFI ON THE RIGHT MARGINS OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:33 pm

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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Severe Tropical Storm

#79 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:32 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Post season upgrade to a typhoon at landfall?? sure looks like it...


i doubt. observations across Southern Taiwan weren't all that particularly impressive. the minimum pressure was around 984mb i believe. and the highest winds recorded were 160kph but that was in Lanyu which is situated roughly 200m AMSL. the 50kt sustained estimates from different agencies should stand post-season analysis.
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Re: WPAC: FUNG-WONG - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:22 am

Tropical storm force winds over eastern china and shanghai...
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