EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:13 am

EP, 97, 2014091312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 885W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014091318, , BEST, 0, 100N, 895W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014091400, , BEST, 0, 100N, 905W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014091406, , BEST, 0, 100N, 915W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 100N, 926W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0


5 AM PDT TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly toward the
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:45 am

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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:26 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 09/14/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 55 63 71 76 83 85 90
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 55 63 71 76 83 85 90
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 45 52 60 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 12 11 7 4 7 10 13 16 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 3 2 3
SHEAR DIR 63 65 70 64 55 56 17 19 50 39 62 69 70
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 150 150 153 155 158 164 165 162 159 159
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 7 10 9 11 8
700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 86 86 83 82 79 78 76 79 77 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 18 19 23
850 MB ENV VOR 50 39 36 33 31 21 22 16 18 28 35 58 73
200 MB DIV 47 31 40 54 51 83 93 99 51 63 45 81 61
700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0
LAND (KM) 466 482 499 535 580 534 496 446 386 325 227 196 179
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.3 17.4 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.4 94.1 94.9 95.7 97.3 98.8 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.0 105.1 106.4
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 14 9 11 14 18 32 50 41 30 21
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#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:13 am

Another one coming. This season is so opposite to last year, it is almost as though it's a joke!
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Re:

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:17 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Another one coming. This season is so opposite to last year, it is almost as though it's a joke!


It's not a joke. It's reality.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:32 pm

11 AM PDT TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly toward the northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:00 pm

18z Best Track:

EP, 97, 2014091418, , BEST, 0, 100N, 943W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:43 pm

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest or
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:44 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 09/14/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 51 58 64 65 70 71 78
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 51 58 64 65 70 71 78
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 52 60 68 74 80
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 16 17 13 10 11 12 18 16 18 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 1 1 2 3
SHEAR DIR 69 64 55 42 38 41 45 68 49 49 67 59 62
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 152 153 154 155 159 163 164 164 162 160
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 10
700-500 MB RH 80 82 84 85 82 82 78 76 74 74 75 78 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 10 9 11 11 16
850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 21 15 12 16 10 18 22 34 42 62 60
200 MB DIV 19 40 44 37 68 102 86 68 66 46 72 83 70
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0
LAND (KM) 539 575 612 591 582 540 495 433 338 254 192 165 118
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.8 14.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 94.3 95.1 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.8 99.8 100.5 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.5 103.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 15 11 7 8 11 14 15 21 31 35 32 29 30
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#10 Postby kimkolwiek » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:50 pm

This East Pacific hurricane season is as intense as 2004 season in Atlantic :eek:
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Re:

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 14, 2014 6:53 pm

kimkolwiek wrote:This East Pacific hurricane season is as intense as 2004 season in Atlantic :eek:


2004 or 2005?
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby kimkolwiek » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:25 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
kimkolwiek wrote:This East Pacific hurricane season is as intense as 2004 season in Atlantic :eek:


2004 or 2005?


Both of them were extremely intense.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#13 Postby Socalsgrl » Mon Sep 15, 2014 3:13 am

We are seeing one a week. Reading a few weeks ago, the chances for a good El Nino this year were dwindling from forecasts earlier this year. As far as I can tell with the way these storms are ramping up, we may be in for a pretty good winter here in the southwest. Opinions?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:41 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and this disturbance could become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it moves slowly toward the west-northwest
or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:59 am

12z Best Track:

97E INVEST 140915 1200 9.7N 96.0W EPAC 25 1007
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:04 am

Shows high shear, but I am skeptical given the fact it doesn't show any major changes in shear. Shear was too high for the last 3 systems as well by either the SHIPS or CMISS. For that reason, do not rule out a major.


* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972014 09/15/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 62 66 69 63 62
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 62 66 69 63 62
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 48 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 20 22 19 18 16 10 7 11 11 18 13 20 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 4 1 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 41 33 22 24 24 9 16 34 54 59 54 76 98
SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 154 156 158 161 160 158 157 155 152 147
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 10 9 12 8 11 8
700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 79 79 78 77 75 74 73 75 71 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 14 14 14 15 16 15 17 19 21 18 18
850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 5 0 0 -5 13 21 37 54 83 84 61
200 MB DIV 82 77 93 105 101 101 74 71 66 91 43 34 14
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 667 637 620 590 562 478 359 233 107 39 38 158 144
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 12.4 14.1 15.9 17.5 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.3
LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.9 97.8 98.5 99.3 100.6 101.8 102.9 103.9 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 6 7 10 12 13 23 39 37 32 20 26 36 26
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:28 pm

11 AM PDT TWO up to 60%-80%:

An elongated low pressure system located about 500 miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development, and this disturbance will likely
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:34 pm

18z Best Track:

EP, 97, 2014091518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 967W, 25, 1007, LO
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#19 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Sep 15, 2014 1:50 pm

Here we go again. Look familiar?

Image
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#20 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:09 pm

:uarrow: If it ramps up too quickly it's just going to smash into Mexico.

GFS sends it NW then WNW while developing it.
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